From: Max M (maxm@maxmcorp.dk)
Date: Mon Feb 01 1999 - 03:14:40 MST
From: Spike Jones <spike66@ibm.net>
>several days ago someone (who?) made the astute observation
>that one who uses computers might in some sense be considered
>the first step in the evolution of a transhuman, since ze would
>exend zis natural abilities by technological means.
Our productivity is directly dependant of our technology. Technology in my
terminology consist of both hardware and methods. If we improve either, we
get a better productivity.
The interresting thing comes when you realise that the methods are not
entirely in the human domain. After a while when you know them, you can
implement them in software/hardware. Thus you have a much improved
technology.
I am a firm believer that The productivity of a person is like this:
the persons skills * the technology he uses = The persons productivity
A carpenter with a hammer might be able to hammer in 10 nails a minute. The
same worker with a nailgun might be able to hammer in 100 nails a minute.
This effect is especially interresting when we notice that for all of us
working with computers there is an exponential growth in the power of our
tools.
At one time or another this will influence every kind of bussines we know
of. Whenever there is some kind of method that can be implemented in
soft/hard-ware it will be done around the time when the computers are
powerfull enough to handle them. Right now this is happening to the music
industry, in a few years it will happen to Television and soon thereafter it
will happen to the moviebussines. The debate about MP3 going on right now
will soon be about movies.
A lot of jobs will dissapear when the technology reaches the right levels.
The bank teller is allready on the way out. A lot of people in the public
sector answer telephones and tells people something they find on their
computer systems. They are in effect hired to read up loud from a computer
screen! This will naturally be automated.
For many jobs it is possible to predict pretty precisely when it will happen
if Moore's law will hold up.
For the rest of us working with computers, the hard part is deciding the
amount of time that we should spend producing things vs. the amount of time
we should use learning new stuff. (If I work hard at my current job I will
get a quick bonus here and now and be considderd productive. But in the
"long" run I will fall behind technological. If instead of working hard I
use my work time learning new stuff, I will be even more productive in the
future and will be worth more in the long run. This way I can get an even
bigger salary when I find a new job because my current company is
unsatisfied with my productivity :-) )
A curious side effect: Anyone claiming that you don't have to learn
computers now because they will soon be much simpler is really missing the
point. It might be easier to do a single task in the future, but you will be
expected to be able to do many more tasks. So actually it will probably be
even harder to use computers in the future as you a required to know and
understand many more fields of labour.
Kind regards
#------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Max M Rasmussen, New Media Director http://www.normik.dk Denmark
# Private mailto:maxm@maxmcorp.dk http://www.maxmcorp.dk
TheWorld =~ s/Microsoft Corporation//g;
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