From: Michael S. Lorrey (mike@datamann.com)
Date: Wed Mar 01 2000 - 17:46:31 MST
hal@finney.org wrote:
> While hunting down Damien's reference I found a short note in the Sep
> 2, 1999 issue of Nature about a paradox I have often experienced while
> driving, so I thought I would share it here:
>
> > From these results, we suggest that drivers are responding to an
> > illusion: namely, that the next lane on a congested road appears to
> > be moving faster than the driver's present lane, even when both lanes
> > have the same average speed. This occurs because vehicles spread out
> > when moving quickly and pack together when moving slowly. A driver can
> > therefore overtake many vehicles in a brief time interval, but it takes
> > much longer for the driver to be overtaken by the same vehicles.
> >
> > Other aspects of human perception may accentuate the impression that
> > the next lane is moving faster. Differential surveillance can occur
> > because drivers look forwards rather than backwards, so vehicles that
> > are overtaken become invisible very quickly, whereas vehicles that
> > overtake the index driver remain conspicuous for much longer. Moreover,
> > a driver is more likely to glance at the next lane for comparison when
> > he is relatively idle while moving slowly.
> >
> > Even if attention was not focused in particular directions and was evenly
> > spaced in time, human psychology may make being overtaken (losing) seem
> > more salient than the corresponding gains. Furthermore, misconceptions
> > about randomness can make runs of overtaking and being overtaken seem
> > unduly prolonged. Our study highlights the effects of congestion and
> > the increasing importance of the illusion, given that the number of
> > miles travelled by vehicles is increasing at a much faster rate than
> > the amount of roadway.
>
> I have in fact found that if I keep a running count, plus or minus, as
> cars pass me and I pass them back, I do find that the actual progress
> of the other line relative to my own is much less discouraging than my
> instincts suggest. This has helped me stay calmer while driving.
>
MY own strategy, which tends to work, is the vehicular equivalent of 'buy low,
sell high'. As soon as I reach a peak speed, I start looking for space to pull
into in the next lane that is slower. Thus I avoid the inevitable slowdown....
People in the slow lane are invariably happy to trade places with you... ;)
--
TANSTAAFL!!!
Michael S. Lorrey
Director, Grafton County Fish & Game Assoc.
http://www.lorrey.com/gcfga/
Member, Extropy Institute
http://www.extropy.org
Member, National Rifle Association
http://www.nra.org
"Live Free or Die, Death is not the Worst of Evils."
- General John Stark
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