From: hal@finney.org
Date: Tue Feb 29 2000 - 20:02:48 MST
While hunting down Damien's reference I found a short note in the Sep
2, 1999 issue of Nature about a paradox I have often experienced while
driving, so I thought I would share it here:
> From these results, we suggest that drivers are responding to an
> illusion: namely, that the next lane on a congested road appears to
> be moving faster than the driver's present lane, even when both lanes
> have the same average speed. This occurs because vehicles spread out
> when moving quickly and pack together when moving slowly. A driver can
> therefore overtake many vehicles in a brief time interval, but it takes
> much longer for the driver to be overtaken by the same vehicles.
>
> Other aspects of human perception may accentuate the impression that
> the next lane is moving faster. Differential surveillance can occur
> because drivers look forwards rather than backwards, so vehicles that
> are overtaken become invisible very quickly, whereas vehicles that
> overtake the index driver remain conspicuous for much longer. Moreover,
> a driver is more likely to glance at the next lane for comparison when
> he is relatively idle while moving slowly.
>
> Even if attention was not focused in particular directions and was evenly
> spaced in time, human psychology may make being overtaken (losing) seem
> more salient than the corresponding gains. Furthermore, misconceptions
> about randomness can make runs of overtaking and being overtaken seem
> unduly prolonged. Our study highlights the effects of congestion and
> the increasing importance of the illusion, given that the number of
> miles travelled by vehicles is increasing at a much faster rate than
> the amount of roadway.
I have in fact found that if I keep a running count, plus or minus, as
cars pass me and I pass them back, I do find that the actual progress
of the other line relative to my own is much less discouraging than my
instincts suggest. This has helped me stay calmer while driving.
Hal
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