From: Robin Hanson (hanson@econ.berkeley.edu)
Date: Thu Jul 16 1998 - 13:17:45 MDT
'gene writes:
> > So what exactly do you mean?
>
>Robin, I'm not sure I get your meaning, but I certainly agree with
>Dan's position. I'm not even sure Darwin still holds in the SI domain,
>I'm not certain of anything. I do not see how anyone who goes on two
>legs can sensibly speculate about that _hypothetic_ future entity/state
>... but just now this is entertainment. We need the pre-SI models to
>dynamically adjust our trajectories as we fall into the Singularity,
>... but we should not try to forecast too far too soon.
I don't know if I agree with Dan or you until I know what you mean.
What is a "sensible" speculation?
Are you saying, for example, that on average the forecasts I might make
today about 2098 are no more accurate than the forecast an ancestor of
mine might have made in 1898 about 2098?
Robin Hanson
hanson@econ.berkeley.edu http://hanson.berkeley.edu/
RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-2627
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