From: Eugene Leitl (eugene@liposome.genebee.msu.su)
Date: Fri Jul 17 1998 - 07:59:19 MDT
Robin Hanson writes:
> Are you saying, for example, that on average the forecasts I might make
> today about 2098 are no more accurate than the forecast an ancestor of
> mine might have made in 1898 about 2098?
Essentially, yes. Assuming, 2098 is PostSingularity you can only safely
exclude anything not in accordance with physical laws, but given what
little we know this set of constraints is not very stringent. Of
course if we run into saturation it might turn out your predictions
are accurate, after all. Point is, we can't tell yet what actually
happens.
ciao,
'gene
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