From: Damien Broderick (damien@ariel.ucs.unimelb.edu.au)
Date: Fri Jul 17 1998 - 11:24:42 MDT
At 12:17 PM 7/16/98 -0700, Robin wrote:
>Are you saying, for example, that on average the forecasts I might make
>today about 2098 are no more accurate than the forecast an ancestor of
>mine might have made in 1898 about 2098?
I would surmise that on average the forecasts anyone might make today about
2098 are no more accurate than the forecast an ancestor might have made in
1798 about 1998. Perhaps *far less* accurate, if we really can expect a
Vingean discontinuity in the intelligence that is brought to bear on
problems somewhere around 2050 if not decades earlier.
I also suppose that we are better placed to be able to imagine such a
Singularity than any ancestor in 1898, although Nikolay Aleksandrovich
Berdyayev might have managed it (he was 24 at the time).
Damien Broderick
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