From: Ross A. Finlayson (extropy@apexinternetsoftware.com)
Date: Wed Sep 11 2002 - 21:36:07 MDT
On Wednesday, September 11, 2002, at 03:44 PM, Mike Lorrey wrote:
>
> --- "Ross A. Finlayson" <extropy@apexinternetsoftware.com> wrote:
>>
>> On Thursday, August 1, 2002, at 08:34 AM, John K Clark wrote:
>>
>>> "Damien Sullivan" <phoenix@ugcs.caltech.edu> Wrote:
>>>
>>>> Last I heard the attack would probably be in October
>>>>
>> It would cost billions and billions and even billions of dollars.
>> That's not an investment, it's an expense.
>
> Not necessarily. If a democratically elected and unsanctioned Iraq
> floods the world oil market, depressing oil prices down to $10 a
> barrel, Americans recoupe tenfold the cost of invasion in lower oil
> prices. As such, it is an investment.
>
No, it's a gamble. There is much to go wrong, Lorrey.
Hussein is unfortunately enough an elected leader, elected by the only
legal party, who has aggressed his neighbors. In a way I guess that
makes him a totalitarian dictator worthy of overthrow.
>> It would involve levels of
>> urban fighting not seen by U.S. forces. Many Iraqi civilians would
>> be at high risk. Success is not assured. Concentrated air defenses
>> imply losses in an air campaign.
>
> Excqueeze me, but how many aircraft did we lose over Bagdad last time
> around? none. Iraqs capabilities are less now than then, and ours are
> more. I'd love to see this 'urban fighting'. The only fighting would be
> Iraqis fighting each other for places in line to surrender to us, much
> like last time.
>
>
> __________________________________________________
> Yahoo! - We Remember
> 9-11: A tribute to the more than 3,000 lives lost
> http://dir.remember.yahoo.com/tribute
>
7:00 p.m.
They have concentrated what's left. Why did a hundred planes last week
turn around after launching some twelve AGM, air-to-ground missiles,
"smart bombs"? My guess is that they got lit up en route by more radar
than expected and tagged the radar sites and told everybody else to turn
around. You see, the air-to-ground missile AGM-65D/AGM-65G has a longer
range than the surface-to-air missile of the Soviet SA-2, SA-3, SA-9, or
NATO Stinger. The others of the hundred planes carrying gravity bombs
can't afford any anti-aircraft fire, they're ducks.
It's assumed they've concentrated defenses in their own homes. I think
the last time an urban war was fought was World War II. Afghanistan
doesn't count as a ground war, they are and were special operatives.
Iraq wouldn't be the first country untractable to American interests
with nuclear, biological, or chemical capabilities. Consider China,
they have a complete doctrine about war against the United States.we
went to war against North Korea before, they're in the process of
reestablishing relations with South Korea, uniting families and such.
Americans killed 100,000 or up to a quarter million Iraqis in the Gulf
War, which the Iraqis fought for oil, upon which they had some claim.
It was wrong for them to invade Kuwait, and they haven't done so again.
Kuwait stole billions of dollars of their oil.
Oil isn't, as far as I know, a readily renewable resource. At some
point in the foreseeable future people have to wean themselves off of
oil. That's what a 'Nam vet told me today, he was against invading
Iraq, as were the other people present, on the grounds of the danger to
the innocent civilians of Iraq. That was their opinion.
You talk about X-Plane, and worked on real jet fighters that cost
millions of dollars apiece, one orphan is a little kid. An orphan with
no legs and no arms is like a little kid, except he can't play ball.
It's not Afghanistan. Karzai can't leave Kandahar, they're still all
mourning Massoud and spending dollars.
So, about the planes, you appear to be misinformed. The United States
has enjoyed air superiority for some time. The United States has the
best air force in the world, the Soviet Union used to have a more
amazing air force than now.
About the oil, you make pretty clear the argument. Cheap oil, dirt
cheap! Here I wrote something and deleted it about an equation between
dead in Iraq and pennies on the barrel. Is that why the Cheney energy
meetings were so secret? Hey what was in those anyways?
I stand by what I say. Let's see:
"It would not reduce risk to Americans and Europeans. Indeed it would
only cement hatred."
I imagine if we invade Iraq then we'd have to invade Israel. I may be
wrong, if attacked as evidenced by the last war in Israel Israel could
defend itself, hopefully as strikingly, hopefully it wouldn't almost
sink another Liberty. America would help defend Israel if it was
attacked from all sides, they receive the most U.S. foreign "aid" of any
country.
Have you noticed on the map how there is a North Korea and a Vietnam?
Admittedly, those countries received support from the Chinese and
Russians. Heh, support from the Chinese. There ain't no Federal
Republic of Vietnam.
Boy it annoys me when people say "exqueeze". It was cool the first time
I heard it, in the early nineties.
Oh, here was my idea, about the cheap oil. The Iraqis already have
people buying their oil besides us at market prices. They're just going
to sell at market prices, although I'm sure they'd love to get some
medicine. If you're talking about installing another puppet regime,
that's not promoting democracy. Personally, I actually wholeheartedly
endorse democracy.
It could be much worse, oil prices could skyrocket for years.
Oil isn't at high prices right now because the Saudis are letting it
flooow. The Saudis are the Kuwaitis are the Emirates. The Saudis are
in deep trouble with lots of people. The administration is in the deep
pockets.
Remember when there was an energy crisis last year?
Another thing is about how it's not about oil or terrorism. Why, pray
tell, would the current administration want the news filled with Iraq
headlines for the next five years?
This country's security depends on its economic security. It's the
economy. We got a social security to monetize.
I play combat flight simulator games, Jane's F-15 Strike Eagle, an
antiquated game. I think I'm pretty good. You better ask somebody.
It's a fun game, nobody gets hurt.
I might go on.
Ross
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