From: Michael Wiik (mwiik@messagenet.com)
Date: Tue Aug 20 2002 - 02:21:08 MDT
Forgive me, I don't recall the name of the guest. Someone involved in
robotics research, perhaps specifically for assisted living companions
for the elderly (Japan leads in such technology; shades of Roujin-Z).
Two bombshells: (quotes may not be exact)
1) AI has been a "colossal failure". "All the computers on the planet
connected together would not equal a single human brain".
2) There are "less than 10" serious AI researchers on the planet.
If true, then we have no superhuman intelligence upcoming to guide us
thru nano and biotech futures, and humanity is toast.
Unless this 1996 interview with Vinge offers a clue:
(see http://www.mbay.net/~jubois/id47.htm )
<<IW: Getting back to the singularity, can you relate some of that back
to the Net and its role?
Vinge: I see at least three paths toward superhuman intelligence. I
don't think they'll be separate, but it's nice to distinguish them for
the purposes of discussion. One is classical AI, another is direct
mind-computer links, and the third is the Internet. Right now the
Internet gives an awfully good imitation of providing superhuman
intelligence capability, both in terms of the total hardware that is out
there and the fact that the Net has all these human- equivalent
peripheral devices called users that can be appropriated in a
distributed way to attack problems.
One symptom that would indicate that we were sliding toward singularity
would be that large-scale organizational tasks like product development
were becoming much more efficient. If businesses can lower their
interorganizational barriers far enough to take advantage of things like
virtual companies, you could see time from concept to product begin to
shrink in ways that would be just unbelievable by the standards of 1970.
If that starts happening, it would be an indication that we are sliding
toward a new regime.>>
Thanks,
-Mike
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