From: Max More (max@maxmore.com)
Date: Tue Aug 20 2002 - 01:18:22 MDT
At 07:33 PM 8/19/2002 -0400, Harvey wrote:
>>http://www.msnbc.com/news/796283.asp?0na=x22136F6
>
>The article also says:
>"It's a 15-year effort that started yesterday," Michael Laine, president
>and chief executive officer of the company, said during the second day of
>the meeting.
>
>How does this square with extropian predictions? I think it overly
>optimistic. I would assume that other people expect the singularity
>before 15 years.
I would assign a fairly high probability to this project taking more than
15 years. I will be disappointed and moderately surprised if it isn't done
within 25 years. Caveat: I haven't really sat down and thought carefully
through plausible scenarios for the development of the space elevator. As
for the singularity, I find that beast far more amorphous and blurred than
most here. Still, I would have to say that a space elevator would be
constructed before we could say we were in or entering a singularity.
Max
_______________________________________________________
Max More, Ph.D.
max@maxmore.com or more@extropy.org
http://www.maxmore.com
Strategic Philosopher
President, Extropy Institute. http://www.extropy.org <more@extropy.org>
_______________________________________________________
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