From: spike66 (spike66@attbi.com)
Date: Fri Aug 23 2002 - 16:45:54 MDT
Max More wrote:
> At 07:33 PM 8/19/2002 -0400, Harvey wrote:
>
>>> http://www.msnbc.com/news/796283.asp?0na=x22136F6
>>
>> The article also says:
>> "It's a 15-year effort that started yesterday," Michael Laine,
>> president and chief executive officer of the company, said during the
>> second day of the meeting.
>
>
> I would assign a fairly high probability to this project taking more
> than 15 years. I will be disappointed and moderately surprised if it
> isn't done within 25 years. Caveat: I haven't really sat down and
> thought carefully through plausible scenarios for the development of
> the space elevator... Max
I did the calcs and confidently predict the probability of a space elevator
in the next 15 years at zero. The probability of a space elevator in 25
years
at verrry near zero. Probability in 50 years, assuming no singularity and
optimistic assumptions regarding material science, ~20%.
I derived the equation for the mass of a space cable about 10 years
ago and published them in an appendix of an engineering paper.
I should resurrect those. spike
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