From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Sun Aug 18 2002 - 05:24:58 MDT
Brian Atkins wrote:
> 3 days ago a new pathogen was discovered in several major cities which
> appears to be killing most individuals within 10 days.
>
> For some reason a certain group of individuals are spared (Arabs,
> whatever).
>
> In about 2 weeks vast amounts of people will be dead.
Now this one I have a solution for. The paper is available on a
need to know basis however.
Simplified it is to put into place a bioterrorism rapid response capability.
Since all pathogenic attacks (vs. chemical attacks) require a vector and
all existing (and likely to exist in the near future) vectors contain
DNA, it is relatively easy to isolate the carrier and sequence the DNA.
We have multiple genome centers that can sequence an entire bacterial
genome in less than a day. Since really novel toxins are unlikely
to be developed in the near future you simply scan the genome for
a gene sequence related to known toxins and determine the protein
structure (using both computer methods, X-ray and NMR studies).
Novel toxins are likely to stick out as well because they will
presumably involve genes dissimilar to those currently in public databsses.
You then dedicate everyone in the country who understands molecular modeling
to devising an antitoxin. One could even design a system to utilize
a huge amount of computational capacity, e.g. AntiToxinDesign@Home, similar
to my Nano@Home proposal. It would help to have antibody libraries,
phage display libraries and chemical libraries predesigned and
stockpiled for testing for efficacy against the toxin. Protein
based libraries would be particularly useful because one can
have predesigned bacteria that can manufacture the protein in
large quantities. You then dedicate all the fermentation capacity
in the country (even beer and wine producers) to cranking out
the anti-toxin. You make it available as necessary until vaccines
become available to provide everyone with immunity.
If we were prepared with something like the above, I think you could
start treatments within a week of discovery and prevent "vast amounts"
of people from dying. If you prepublish the plans for this capability
it would make bioterrorism a much less likely weapon for terrorists
to choose. It requires a public & private sector cooperation plan
be in place and people be trained so they know what their job is
to facilitate the response.
Robert
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