From: Barbara Lamar (barbaralamar@sanmarcos.net)
Date: Sun Apr 07 2002 - 12:35:22 MDT
Dan "Technotranscendence" wrote:
> There is a single thing that can be done now by the US government that
> would not need a Singularity and would have an positive impact in the
> region. This would be to disengage totally.
Nice wish, but it's not going to happen. There's no way US government would
abandon an area that contains something like 75% of the world's proven oil
reserves.
Because of actions taken in the past (by government, industry, individual
consumers), the US government is now committed to controlling middle
eastern oil production and distribution to the extent possible. A
significant increase in the price of oil would disrupt EVERY aspect of the
global economy. Survival even at the most basic level of securing calories
to run individual human bodies depends on oil. Agricultural chemicals are
derived from oil, including the fertilizer without which farm yields would
be only a fraction of what they are now (particularly since most modern crop
varieties thrive only with high doses of fertilizer). Modern agribusiness is
also dependent on a wide range of heavy equipment run on fuel derived from
oil.
> BTW, as a general fact or factoid, I've read that the US only gets about
> 10% or 15% of its oil from the Middle East. This is hardly a big
> dependency.
In a global economy it's misleading to look only at the amount of Middle
Eastern oil imported by the US. If the supply of oil goes down with respect
to any significant participant in the world market, the price of all oil
will tend to rise for all participants.
Keep in mind that the practical issue isn't whether or not the US can import
oil at any price, or whether or not there are alternative energy sources.
The issue is cost of energy. If the price of oil goes up to $50 per barrel,
there will be seriously unpleasant economic consequences. The present
reality for the US and its trading partners includes a price for past
mistakes that will have to be paid. Judging by human nature, world history,
and current trends, the US will attempt to evade paying the price until all
means of postponement have been exhausted.
Of course, unexpected technologies could change the whole picture (although
introduction of even the most useful technology often involves an upfront
social cost that people will resist paying). Probably the most useful thing
individuals can do is to support the development of new technology that
would decrease the incentive to use oil as an energy source.
Barbara Lamar
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