ESSAY:Postrel on dynamism and tech. progress

From: Kathryn Aegis (aegis@igc.apc.org)
Date: Fri Nov 27 1998 - 11:09:48 MST


Virginia Postrel is the editor of Reason Magazine.

                  Why Those With Vision Embrace Imperfection

                  By Virginia Postrel
                  Washington Post
                  Sunday, November 22, 1998; Page C01

                  Just about every morning around 6, I wake up and glance
                  at a clock perched four feet away. Its glowing red
                  digits tell me that it is not yet time to get up, and I
                  happily roll over for another hour or so of sleep.
                  Whenever I think about it, I am amazed that I can open
                  my eyes in the dim light of morning and see.

                  Every couple of weeks, when I take the required break
                  from my wear-to-bed contact lenses, I get a sharp
                  reminder of why my amazement is justified. On those
                  mornings, the clock is nothing but a dark blur, its
                  digits smeared into a bright discoloration with no hint
                  of meaning. That is the way the world--all the world
                  more than a foot or so away--looks to my naked eyes. No
                  one who sees the world this way can simply scoff at the
                  notion of progress.

                  The development of the contact lens shows how
                  dissatisfaction and demand breed innovation and
                  improvement. Back in the late 19th century, an obsessed
                  Swiss physician named A. Eugen Fick had glass lenses
                  ground to his specifications, tested them on rabbits and
                  then tried them on himself--for two whole hours. He
                  recorded problems that the lenses posed and explored
                  possible causes. Over the next century, eye specialists,
                  later joined by polymer chemists, experimented with lens
                  materials and sizes, with ways of making impressions of
                  the eyeball and with wetting solutions--all in pursuit
                  of a lens that would provide the right vision correction
                  and could be worn for long stretches of time without
                  harm or irritation.

                  It was a long and difficult process, with inherent risks
                  for both innovators (whose ideas might not work) and
                  users (whose eyes might be injured). Yet this is how
                  progress arises: through trial and error, experiment and
                  feedback. Both components are crucial. As economic
                  historian Joel Mokyr notes, "If every harebrained
                  technological idea were tried and implemented, the costs
                  would have been tremendous. Like [biological] mutations,
                  most technological innovations are duds and deserve to
                  be eliminated. Yet overcoming the built-in resistance is
                  the key to technological progress: If no harebrained
                  idea was ever tried, we would still be living in the
                  Stone Age."

                  This principle applies to all innovation. How we feel
                  about this process tells us who we are as individuals
                  and as a civilization: Do we think progress requires a
                  central blueprint, or do we see it as a decentralized,
                  evolutionary process? Do we see mistakes as permanent
                  disasters, or as correctable byproducts of
                  experimentation? Do we search for "stasis"--a regulated,
                  engineered world? Or do we embrace "dynamism"--a world
                  of constant creation, discovery and competition? These
                  poles increasingly define our political, intellectual
                  and cultural landscape.

                  Because they believe we learn from choice, competition
                  and criticism--not from picking winners in
                  advance--dynamists are willing to put up with
                  experiments that may not work, or that they think are
                  lousy. And they embrace plenitude. Their world has room
                  for a range of enterprises: for both Promise Keepers and
                  Ms. magazine; for the macho culture of Intel and the
                  zaniness of Southwest Airlines; for punks and
                  debutantes; Mozart and Madonna; "The Little Mermaid" and
                  "Pulp Fiction." Dynamists do not demand that we
                  collectively choose "one best way."

                  This way of thinking is foreign to most public debates,
                  which are often governed by static, technocratic
                  assumptions. In early 1996, about a year into the
                  Republican takeover of Congress, I met with a Capitol
                  Hill insider who tried to explain what had gone wrong
                  with Newt Gingrich's "revolution." The problem, he said,
                  was that most members of Congress--including
                  "revolutionary" Republicans--couldn't imagine life
                  without central, governmental direction. "They're good
                  conservatives, so they want to reduce government," he
                  said. "But they think of that as getting as close to the
                  abyss as possible without falling off."

                  Life as the abyss. All too often, that attitude shapes
                  our political discussion. We have become so accustomed
                  to technocratic governance that we take for granted that
                  new ideas, products or problems require government
                  scrutiny and centralized "solutions." Most political
                  arguments thus take place between competing technocratic
                  schemes: Should the tax code favor families with
                  children or people attending college? Should a national
                  health insurance program enroll everyone in managed
                  care, or should we regulate HMOs so they act more like
                  fee-for-service doctors? Should we regulate, subsidize
                  or ban biotechnology? The question often isn't whether
                  the future should be molded to fit a static ideal. It's
                  whose blueprint should rule.

                  Instead of rushing to address every new development with
                  a grand plan or an ad hoc solution, dynamists have the
                  patience to let trial and error work. "Premature
                  choice," physicist Freeman Dyson wrote in 1992, "means
                  betting all your money on one horse before you have
                  found out whether she is lame."

                  The search for the perfect corrective lens provides a
                  microcosm of dynamism at work. Eyeglasses to correct
                  nearsightedness were invented around the year 1500, two
                  centuries after reading glasses. For me in the late
                  1960s, they were miracle enough. The trees once again
                  had leaves and the chalkboards had words. Contact lenses
                  came a decade later, along with more wonders: peripheral
                  vision, sharper and more consistent focus, no annoying
                  smudges, no slipping down my nose. And I did look
                  better.

                  Another decade passed. My hard lenses had been replaced
                  by gas-permeable ones, safer because they let in more
                  oxygen. But when I moved to Los Angeles, my eyes
                  couldn't take the dry air: The lenses would cause me
                  pain within a few hours, driving me back to glasses and
                  all the shortcomings I thought I'd escaped. Finally, a
                  new optometrist hit on a solution: disposables, which
                  had been on the market only a couple of years. Unlike
                  rigid lenses, they came in off-the-shelf sizes--easier
                  to fit than shoes--and could be quickly and cheaply
                  replaced. They were super-wet and got thrown away before
                  they could get grungy. As an added bonus, I could keep
                  them in for two weeks at a time.

                  The inventors are still at work, and the perfect contact
                  lens remains always out of reach. This process is hardly
                  unique to contacts. Authors revise books, cooks fiddle
                  with recipes, teachers try new techniques and parents
                  hope to do better with their second child than their
                  first. Rarely do we discover perfection. The
                  imperfections of the world generate the demand for
                  progress. "Form follows failure," explains civil
                  engineering professor Henry Petroski, whose popular
                  books explore the histories of such mundane objects as
                  zippers and forks.

                  Fix one problem and others arise. Or having solved the
                  more serious problems, we turn to others we never
                  worried about before. Car makers refine the placement of
                  cup holders; dishwasher manufacturers design fold-down
                  racks; Procter & Gamble produces Tide Free for the
                  allergy-prone. Post-it Notes sprang from one man's
                  discontent with the bookmarks that kept falling out of
                  his choir hymnal.

                  Contrary to the traditional technocratic vision, the
                  very nature of progress dictates an inherently open,
                  unpredictable and imperfect future. This diverse,
                  decentralized process makes those who crave control
                  uncomfortable. No one is in charge, and the results are
                  risky.

                  Consider the advice dispensed by Vogue medical columnist
                  and physician Isadore Rosenfeld on disposable,
                  extended-wear contact lenses. Three of the four experts
                  he surveyed, Rosenfeld wrote in June 1994, say sleeping
                  in the lenses "is not safe" and is unjustified "unless
                  you're having near-sighted dreams." Don't do it, he
                  warned, but added, "There's good news on the horizon:
                  I'm told there are lenses in development that will
                  permit adequate passage of oxygen to the eye and will
                  likely be safer for overnight wear."

                  As consumer information on the inherent hazards of
                  sticking pieces of plastic in your eyes and then going
                  to sleep, Rosenfeld's column was entirely reasonable. He
                  questioned cornea authorities and presented up-to-date
                  research. And I can testify from excruciatingly painful
                  personal experience that extended-wear lenses do entail
                  the risk of corneal ulcers.

                  But would we have contact lenses at all, much less safer
                  lenses in development, if everyone shared Rosenfeld's
                  attitude toward risk taking? We can only imagine what
                  he--or any other sensible person--would have advised the
                  obsessed Dr. Fick when he was placing ground-glass
                  lenses over his eyeballs and observing the results.

                  Confined to a fashion magazine, Rosenfeld's preference
                  for progress without risk is a benign fantasy, no more
                  dangerous than the lingerie ad it followed. But it is,
                  in fact, a fantasy. Risk and courage are essential to
                  innovation. The early adopters who take chances with
                  unproven innovations provide critical feedback both to
                  innovators and later users. The information they supply
                  helps determine whether a new idea will flop altogether
                  or get to prove itself to a larger public.

                  Just about every new idea goes through a debugging
                  process. When the use of bank credit cards spread in the
                  1960s, the losses bordered on the catastrophic. Issuing
                  banks lost millions of dollars in theft, fraud and bad
                  debts. Consumers screamed about receiving unordered
                  cards in the mail--a technique banks used to establish a
                  large enough network of cardholders to interest
                  retailers. Pundits warned of a nation of "credit
                  drunks." Congress held hearings, led by Wright Patman,
                  then the powerful chairman of the House Banking and
                  Currency Committee. He threatened to regulate bank cards
                  out of business. Fortunately, cooler heads prevailed,
                  and only minor restrictions became law.

                  As for the risks (and losses) the banks took, they were
                  as necessary as they were painful. "Most credit card
                  veterans now view the late 1960s as a time of madness,
                  culminating in staggering losses to the banks, public
                  embarrassment and federal legislation," Joseph Nocera
                  wrote in "A Piece of the Action," a history of the
                  "money revolution." From that chaos emerged our current
                  credit card system.

                  Trial and error is a very humble process. It invests no
                  one with decisive power, assumes no one is omniscient or
                  even particularly wise. It cherishes the unheralded
                  inventor willing to test a new idea. It recognizes that
                  most ideas will fail--but converts that weakness into a
                  powerful lever for progress. "There is no way to find
                  the best design except to try out as many designs as
                  possible and discard the failures," writes physicist
                  Dyson.

                  Progress does not mean that everyone will be better off
                  in every respect. But under ordinary circumstances, for
                  the random individual, life in a dynamic society will be
                  better tomorrow, on the whole, than life today. It will
                  offer more variety, more opportunity, more options, more
                  knowledge, more control over time and place, more life.
                  It will address more sources of dissatisfaction (though
                  it may also call attention to new ones) and create more
                  sources of delight.

                  And while dynamism will not perfect moral character or
                  avert foolish ideas, its continuous processes of
                  criticism and correction will, over time, curb excesses
                  and limit damage. We have not discovered the one best
                  way to live, nor is it likely that we ever will. But we
                  can improve our lot by building on the discoveries,
                  insights and experiments of the past.

                  Virginia Postrel is the editor of Reason magazine. This
                  article is adapted from her new book, "The Future and
                  Its Enemies: The Growing Conflict Over Creativity,
                  Enterprise and Progress" (Free Press).

                        © Copyright 1998 The Washington Post Company



This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Fri Nov 01 2002 - 14:49:51 MST