From: Anders Sandberg (asa@nada.kth.se)
Date: Sun Aug 23 1998 - 16:06:41 MDT
"maxm" <maxm@maxmcorp.dk> writes:
> I think that any SI will be limited mostly by this factor. How to do a thing
> is pretty straightfoward in most cases but choosing WHAT to do (that big
> bussines idea), so that you really stand out from the rest of the pack. That
> is hard!
Good point!
Where real intelligence shows itself is in this area. True
intelligence consists of noticing the patterns that allow them to
partially pierce the "probability cloud". A chess master will not just
know about the possible moves, he will also judge the opponent and
select the gambit most likely to make the opponent make a mistake.
So the problem isn't the combinatorial explosion of possibilities, it
is discovering the patterns. This is a hard problem, and most likely
is linked to the bias-variance dilemma in learning theory (it is too
late for me to think clearly, but I think they are linked). It may be
that an SI will need so extremely large amounts of data to predict the
important stuff that in reality it will have to settle for educated
guessing not that much more advanced than our own.
-- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Anders Sandberg Towards Ascension! asa@nada.kth.se http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/ GCS/M/S/O d++ -p+ c++++ !l u+ e++ m++ s+/+ n--- h+/* f+ g+ w++ t+ r+ !y
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