From: James Rogers (jamesr@best.com)
Date: Fri Dec 27 1996 - 18:24:55 MST
>Again it's a question about exponential growth. If the doubling rate
>becomes to fast, it will be very easy to end up several generations behind.
>If we are close to a Singularity it would be very easy to be left a LOT of
>generations behind. The more likely it will be that a techno elite will
>develop.
I agree with general principles of what you are saying. The exponential
growth of IT has left *a lot* of people in the dust and is making it
increasingly difficult to keep current. I see the ranks of the techno elite
becoming increasingly small. I am lucky in that I started over ten years
ago *AND* I spend significant amounts of time and resources learning new
technologies. It has already become a full-time job just staying current.
I believe it is now impossible for anyone just starting out to achieve my
level of computer expertise. Technology is changing so fast that it is
coming into conflict with the human ability to learn. It is very quickly
coming up on the point where technology will be expanding at a rate that is
*impossible* for humans to keep current on it. It dismays me to find that
many of my friends who used to be among the techno elite have fallen along
the wayside because they could not keep up with the pace of change. The
only solution for many people these days is to specialize in specific
technologies. The number of "broad spectrum" techno elites is dwindling
rapidly, but the remaining few tend to be exceptionally intelligent
individuals.
I fear the day when I too may be forced to become one of the techno
obsolete. It would force me to accept limits I refuse to impose on myself.
-James Rogers
jamesr@best.com
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