From: Julio R. Vaquer (jvaquer@primenet.com)
Date: Thu Dec 05 1996 - 21:30:21 MST
I may be wrong, but it seems to me that the "Shooting room paradox" is
missing some needed information. There are one of three groups one can
fall into:
1) You were in the room; the dice were rolled and it did NOT come up
double-six... sorry, please try the roullette table. Let's call this
"population X"
2)You were in the room and double-six was rolled....you win!
This is "population Y"
3)Double-six was rolled. The experiment ended but you had never been
called..."population Z"
hence:
probability of being in X + Probability of Being in Y + Probability of
being in Z= 100%
Let's look at Population Z.
The probability of never having been called into the room ( as with the
other two populations - X & Y) depends on the total population available
for the experiment.
As the Total Available Population (TAP) approaches infinity, the chances
of you, as an individual, being excluded from the experiment approaches
certainty(?) and the chance of witnessing any roll... (whether a
double-six winner or any losing combo) approaches zero.
You need to know the number of people eligible for the experiment.
The chances of double-six on any pending roll is 1 of 36. The chances
of you witnessing the roll depends on the general population. However,
if you feel you may get left out, you can always petition the
government. It is not fair that some of us get to see the tickled cubes
while others have to put mind and muscle into play in order to create
our own present and future.
Perhaps the general principle I'm searching for is: The chances of an
event happening and the chances of you witnessing it are two different
things. Once the tree in the forest has 100% fallen, many, few, or none
may hear the sound.
Thankfully,the benefits of economics, technology and civilization
*increase* as the the general population of free people goes up.
Julio R. Vaquer
jvaquer@primenet.com
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