From: Damien Broderick (damien@ariel.ucs.unimelb.edu.au)
Date: Mon Dec 02 1996 - 17:14:22 MST
At 04:25 PM 12/2/96 EST, Gregory Sullivan wrote:
>I highly recommend that anyone interested in thinking about the future read
>one of the classic early articles of prediction based on mathematical
>extrapolation.
>
>Science Fiction is Too Conservative
>by G. Harry Stine
>Many of the key ideas behind the notion of a "singularity" are contained in
>this article from 35 years ago. The article also illustrates how simplistic
>extrapolation can lead to wildly inaccurate projections.
Indeed. I asked Stine about this recently, since I'm citing some of his
absurd hyper-predictions in my book THE SPIKE. He didn't back off, simply
replying `Science Fiction is STILL too conservative' (the title of a
follow-up article where he was much more muted). On the other hand, as you
hint, there are aspects of a plausible future that might, indeed, resemble
his projections, although perhaps requiring an extra 50 or 100 years lead
time - rather than 50,000 or 100,000, as Asimovian sf would have suggested.
Damien Broderick
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