From: Avatar Polymorph (avatarpolymorph@hotmail.com)
Date: Sat Nov 09 2002 - 02:20:34 MST
The myth of the library... and: digital paper
Digital paper (eink and gyricon) stands poised to revolutionize the world of
the book. Combined with recent developments in batteries (e.g. flat paper
batteries, shrinkage in laboratory produced lithium batteries) and ordinary
current devices such as CD reader/writers and infra-red ports, we should see
our whole experiential world go flip-flop... by the END OF 2003!
Currently we don't have a very good system. For the ordinary person, with
limits to how many books they can physically read in any one week, life is
tough. Bookstores are very limited in stock, prices are high, and libraries
are temporary repositories for current books, chucked out after ten reads or
ten years and then not replaced. Out of print problems have been partially
solved by print on demand, usually (still) very expensive but often
including previews in PDF. Also, of course, the Internet itself has its text
aspect including some free on-screen libraries that could (in theory) be
printed out at home on your printer. Internet newspapers are now greater in
number than press ones.
Gyricon's refresh rate for its product (then 100 dpi in black and white, now
300 dpi) is so far several million and testing. Enough for only a few
minutes of video, but endless numbers of books (even enough for
page-flicking on a single page).
Currently the web uses credit cards, but presumably the push for electronic
cash cards, bank account debiting and government-issued facilities will
increase with time. Lower costs need simple payment methods.
At the moment, if I don't have a good private library, it's very difficult
to get most of the texts I might want to examine. I can look at a few in
Amazon to an extent, or look at reviews and articles on the Net. If I go to
a university library the magazine section is great and accessible, the books
are not. Our State library has copies of all local productions, but you can
only read the title on the catalogue and request it be delivered to you -
after half an hour it duly appears, and then you find out if it's what you
want. No browsing, and browsing is the key to discovery! (The books are
physically accessible on the shelves only by the library staff.) Some
libaries are having their entire contents scanned in overseas, last I heard.
Probable outcomes:
Cost of blank paperback - maybe about $100 US.
Cost of blank sheet - $1 US.
Some books will be very cheap, some expensive. Market forces will rupture
the price spectrum. Normal books will almost cease to exist in small runs
(publishing is absolutely cutthroat regarding pricing).
Media rings, publicity rings and review rings will become vital and
well-financed. It always takes you the same time to read a book (currently
anyhow) whatever the technology.
Numbers of titles will increase, possibly by a factor of 10 or more, with
many unpublished authors putting up websites for download.
There will be a culture of freebie books as well as cost books.
Community newspapers will be easy to produce with fewer staff.
Libraries will have downloadable books (lock and borrow) with display
catalogues - libraries already have copyright payment arrangements for
borrowed books.
Presumably the great PDF versus word software debate will go on in the world
of the digital book.
Some people will read their books on the wall, with letters half a foot
high!
Barriers between books and other art forms will be reduced.
Bookstores/coffee lounges will cater for high-content CD-loading situations
(e.g. photography coffee table books). Bookstore chains will download from
cable or satellite etc. to blank book, smaller stores may have a filing
cabinet or hard drive full of CDs. Bookstores will offer ease of access to
all relevant web-based sites etc. (e.g. for detective novels) and ease of
access to reviewing systems and summaries and covers etc..
Translation machines will open up whole new libraries to the Anglo-Celtic
English speaking world and vice versa (a process already under way) and this
will be especially relevant for books which can be "reset".
Back catalogues will become very valuable, for so than existing print on
demand expansion has meant since cost structures are potentially lower.
You'll get to read lots of comics you missed out on as a kid.
You'll get to read back issues of lots of magazines.
Initially photographs may be diluted to reduce their informational size.
Initially black and white paper is the norm, later colour paper will come
in.
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