From: Smigrodzki, Rafal (SmigrodzkiR@msx.upmc.edu)
Date: Thu Jun 13 2002 - 14:58:34 MDT
Eugen Leitl wrote:
I don't listen much to what AI researchers say. Their credulity rating
is about zero. Given both abysmal track record and airy dismissal of
lessons to be learned from molecular level analysis of existing instances of
intelligence and the processes which brought them into being.
### Well, in that case indeed there is nothing to fear in the foreseeable
future, and you can safely dismiss Eli, instead of expressing outrage at his
efforts.
I don't share this attitude. AI research was not what it was cracked up to
be, but it will.
---- facilities with a budget and supply of specific parts. A big AI project cannot be missed, and be it by a sudden absence of a number of key players. (I'd be watching ALifers and neuromorphic people, especially if they dabble in hardware). ### I'm not so sure. There are places out there in autocratic states where even nuclear weapon projects could go unnoticed, a bunch of geeks with workstations won't be even a blip on your radar. ------ The predictions of 2020 is compleat bogus. ### Do you mean the estimate for the computational power of the human brain is incorrect or the Moore's Law will not hold long enough? Integrated 3D molecular circiutry doesn't seem to be necessary to achieve this kind of power. -------- > download scads of modules able to perform all kinds of tasks at the > low and intermediate level of cognition, even a bunch of You assume you can build an AI from a bunch of CPAN modules? AI is a massively parallel numerical (doesn't mean it uses floats) application. ### See this quote from Ben: "I think we're talking about a few hundred thousand lines of C++ code, maybe 5-10 different specialized data structures, 10-20 different specialized learning algorithms, and 100 configurable parameters altogether. Smaller by far than the Windows OS, but vastly harder to debug and tune... " But then, since he is an AI researcher, we shouldn't pay attention to him, right? ------- > garden-variety religious nuts might be able to cobble together a god. I think this is a remarkably silly claim. ### Just wait for Windows 2015 on a multiprocessor Pentium 10 machine, with Cyc v7.9, and a Flare 4 AI development suite. -------- Basically, what worries me about your position is the seeming discrepancy: on one hand you are quite forcefully remonstrating against the current FAI attempts, for all the danger they are putting us in, but then on the other side you dismiss them as so incompetent as to be unable to even get properly started towards their goal. Which is it then? Rafal
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