From: Adrian Tymes (wingcat@pacbell.net)
Date: Fri Oct 20 2000 - 19:04:02 MDT
Robin Hanson wrote:
> Adrian Tymes wrote:
> > > > > ... If the original owner of the launcher
> > > > > could have benefited by staying a little longer they would have.
> > > >
> > > >...Just because the original owner *thought* that X
> > > >was the optimal time, doesn't mean the original owner was correct.
> > >
> > > Well yes of course anyone might get lucky. ... you can't be
> > > consistently lucky. ...
> >
> >Where does luck play into it? ... We can
> >construct ships now that would catch up to and pass the Voyager probes,
> >despite their being launched decades ago.
>
> My model assumes fixed technology. If technology changed, we'd have
> to make assumptions about who gets it first to figure out who that
> benefits.
...right as we're facing the Singularity, which is the permanent lack of
fixed technology (barring physical limits, but technology has found ways
to accomplish tasks despite apparent physical limits by rendering said
limits technically irrelevant before).
I don't think we can safely assume fixed tech, at least not for anything
that is to yield practical insights on our universe.
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