From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Thu Aug 24 2000 - 12:47:23 MDT
Jason Joel Thompson wrote:
>
> I think you're almost certainly correct insofar as I suspect the issues are
> not quite as straightforward as some of the guys drawing the graphs seem to
> believe.
>
> We project future innovation on the basis of current processes: this is
> probably not a bad way to listen to the future, but I think it's clear that
> we can't rule out major paradigm shifts or fundamental technical hurdles.
>
> Reality doesn't know to follow the curve.
I'm not using the curves. The curves still say 2020 (although actually,
I haven't recalculated for Blue Gene yet).
There are no project estimates when it comes to basic research, but
2008-2010 is the project estimate I'm not making. If you see what I
mean.
Sincerely,
Eliezer.
-- -- -- -- --
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/home.html
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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