From: Jason Joel Thompson (jasonjthompson@home.com)
Date: Thu Aug 24 2000 - 00:38:24 MDT
----- Original Message -----
From: "Zero Powers" <zero_powers@hotmail.com>
To: <extropians@extropy.org>
> Granted I'm not on the "front lines" or anything (heck I ain't even on the
> battlefield), but the more I read the less optimistic I become. My
current
> estimate is circa '40.
>
>
> -Zero
I think you're almost certainly correct insofar as I suspect the issues are
not quite as straightforward as some of the guys drawing the graphs seem to
believe.
I'm sure we humans still have a few surprises in store for us in our quest
for engineered intelligence. I don't think that anyone who knows anything
about the human computer will pretend that the answers are clear.
We project future innovation on the basis of current processes: this is
probably not a bad way to listen to the future, but I think it's clear that
we can't rule out major paradigm shifts or fundamental technical hurdles.
Reality doesn't know to follow the curve.
Currently the human computer -does- have logical limits on its ability to
think. We are *just* of intelligence necessary to be considered smart here
folks-- we are just a single echelon above the higer primates.
Hey, don't get me wrong, it's a good echelon to be on. It's a significant
step.
In fact, it's a great one-- I believe that we are just of the intelligence
necessary to realize the need for us to become more intelligent.
I hope it happens quickly, I do, but it's a little early in the game yet to
rule out catastrophic circumstances.
--
::jason.joel.thompson::
::founder::
www.wildghost.com
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