From: CurtAdams@aol.com
Date: Mon Mar 27 2000 - 10:57:18 MST
In a message dated 3/27/00 7:56:16 AM Pacific Standard Time, rhanson@gmu.edu
cites:
> "Modeling and Forecasting U. S. Mortality"
> Ronald D. Lee, Lawrence R. Carter
> Journal of the American Statistical Association,
> Vol. 87, No. 419. (Sep., 1992), pp. 659-671.
That's 8 years ago. Has anybody checked the accuracy of
the predictions since? The period of the 90's included
a big blip in longevity due to AIDS. Early in the
'90s (or in the late 80s') longevity increases slowed
notably due to the spread of the disease; I remember at
least one year with no increase at all. Later, as
the protease inhibitors have recieved wide use, AIDS
death rates fell and increases have been above trend.
So it's a bit of an acid test, but I'd still be curious.
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