From: Steve C. Dotson (neuroknot@hotbot.com)
Date: Wed Mar 22 2000 - 22:00:56 MST
-- On Wed, 22 Mar 2000 17:50:38 Robin Hanson wrote: >I've revised a short paper I wrote a year and a half ago, wherein >I basically predict a "singularity" in the next century. > >---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >http://hanson.gmu.edu/longgrow.html > > COULD IT HAPPEN AGAIN? > Long-Term Growth As A Sequence of Exponential Modes > > by Robin Hanson > First Version 9/11/98, Revised 3/22/00 > >The long-term history of world economic growth can be modeled as sequence of >at least three distinct exponential growth modes: hunting, farming, and >industry. Farming substituted for hunting, making for a sharp transition. >The transition to industry was smoother, because industry complemented >farming. Each of the last two modes grew over one hundred times faster than >its predecessor. > >Perhaps it is not crazy to wonder if we might see yet another transition to >a faster mode. If modes are comparable, in terms of how much the economy >grows when they dominate and how much faster new modes are, then within the >next century we should expect a dramatic transition to a new growth mode, a >mode where the economic doubling time is measured in weeks, not years. Does this mean you have a rekindled interest in the equity markets as sound investments, or are you still solidly behind certain real estate investments to the exclusion of stocks? Steve HotBot - Search smarter. http://www.hotbot.com
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Fri Nov 01 2002 - 15:27:35 MST