1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
|
Return-Path: <mashuribc@gmail.com>
Received: from smtp1.linuxfoundation.org (smtp1.linux-foundation.org
[172.17.192.35])
by mail.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id 2E4917E
for <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>;
Wed, 5 Aug 2015 06:32:26 +0000 (UTC)
X-Greylist: whitelisted by SQLgrey-1.7.6
Received: from mail-pa0-f52.google.com (mail-pa0-f52.google.com
[209.85.220.52])
by smtp1.linuxfoundation.org (Postfix) with ESMTPS id DFC7030
for <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>;
Wed, 5 Aug 2015 06:32:24 +0000 (UTC)
Received: by padck2 with SMTP id ck2so28013889pad.0
for <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>;
Tue, 04 Aug 2015 23:32:24 -0700 (PDT)
DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=gmail.com; s=20120113;
h=date:from:to:cc:message-id:in-reply-to:references:subject
:mime-version:content-type;
bh=6qF7NpIa4hbeKT+ez6wjPpslNXYc+7cK/4+Oe+FD4MQ=;
b=JOsaHl3nNsh5kH3bB7cT6XpDOo8vqKXG4OfslOGLBChg1gKbKbrVZ5rfnej2xpnrM/
mBJa385uqCsnu96wUNNMA33Lgvmj3Dun2nfIiaiXGKunGI7tYY2Hlpy9X6MTQRwW4EJc
4yvsRJbQtpRhEGBKZcznIsvcU0++vOZ5lHXWeC9NjGD1VqyQ9Sv1q5DWPMCSuXRKwBxN
85lzFIT87mxfbgz+CSLIDjB7rb/+knRsnFwcaBYvfOEK8yULQSCXLSvs1XBxH+wb1cQC
2XYP7sxMKLq78z6gXYXXKqey8hs8w5LwH/oCNvkdkfjaJMQP38ifkrVZG6+69PWwHp2L
v9DQ==
X-Received: by 10.66.230.201 with SMTP id ta9mr16258442pac.95.1438756344599;
Tue, 04 Aug 2015 23:32:24 -0700 (PDT)
Received: from mail.outlook.com
(ec2-54-149-197-188.us-west-2.compute.amazonaws.com.
[54.149.197.188]) by smtp.gmail.com with ESMTPSA id
cq5sm1508516pad.11.2015.08.04.23.32.23
(version=TLSv1 cipher=ECDHE-RSA-RC4-SHA bits=128/128);
Tue, 04 Aug 2015 23:32:23 -0700 (PDT)
Date: Wed, 5 Aug 2015 06:32:23 +0000 (UTC)
From: Mashuri Clark <mashuribc@gmail.com>
To: <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>, Owen <ogunden@phauna.org>,
Eric Lombrozo <elombrozo@gmail.com>
Message-ID: <207C5360C6E6B691.EE5B6328-B96A-4704-9818-D158751E7CAD@mail.outlook.com>
In-Reply-To: <835E3F90-C057-4240-9EB6-D2C7400B662B@gmail.com>
References: <CABsx9T1E1s=4h-SxLTOAXK4GniZrUekcEb6zDdTDFG+h7X98MA@mail.gmail.com>
<CAJS_LCXkr1y+4ENbvT5B-kJiN=fJWX9CMgknbBfS3dDtVMm+0w@mail.gmail.com>
<5A323AB6-914C-4FF5-9FC2-AB8E02C69F93@phauna.org>
<835E3F90-C057-4240-9EB6-D2C7400B662B@gmail.com>
MIME-Version: 1.0
Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
boundary="----=_Part_9769_2068777552.1438756343021"
X-Mailer: Outlook for iOS and Android
X-Spam-Status: No, score=-2.7 required=5.0 tests=BAYES_00,DKIM_SIGNED,
DKIM_VALID,DKIM_VALID_AU,FREEMAIL_FROM,HTML_MESSAGE,RCVD_IN_DNSWL_LOW
autolearn=ham version=3.3.1
X-Spam-Checker-Version: SpamAssassin 3.3.1 (2010-03-16) on
smtp1.linux-foundation.org
Cc: Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Eli Dourado on "governance"
X-BeenThere: bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.12
Precedence: list
List-Id: Bitcoin Development Discussion <bitcoin-dev.lists.linuxfoundation.org>
List-Unsubscribe: <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/options/bitcoin-dev>,
<mailto:bitcoin-dev-request@lists.linuxfoundation.org?subject=unsubscribe>
List-Archive: <http://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/>
List-Post: <mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
List-Help: <mailto:bitcoin-dev-request@lists.linuxfoundation.org?subject=help>
List-Subscribe: <https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev>,
<mailto:bitcoin-dev-request@lists.linuxfoundation.org?subject=subscribe>
X-List-Received-Date: Wed, 05 Aug 2015 06:32:26 -0000
------=_Part_9769_2068777552.1438756343021
Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Why not speculate on a real market? =C2=A0Peter Sztorc proposed a sidechain=
that could be implemented now using Blockstream's method:
http://www.truthcoin.info/blog/win-win-blocksize/
--
MC
On Tue, Aug 4, 2015 at 8:08 PM -0700, "Eric Lombrozo via bitcoin-dev" <bitc=
oin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
Rather than speculating on fake markets, why don=E2=80=99t we use theory, e=
mpirical data, and engineering to fix the damn problems?
On Aug 4, 2015, at 11:28 AM, Owen via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxf=
oundation.org> wrote:
Given there is no money at stake in these prediction games, it is no surpri=
se that the results are implausible.
On August 4, 2015 10:22:19 AM EDT, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-d=
ev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
On 4 August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev <bitcoin-dev@list=
s.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:
And the preliminary results of using a prediction market to try to wrestle =
with the tough tradeoffs looks roughly correct to me, too:=C2=A0 =C2=A0http=
s://blocksizedebate.com/
=E2=80=8BThe scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early July?) =
so those numbers aren't live. But...
Network hash rate
3,255.17 PH/s =C2=A0(same block size) 5,032.64 PH/s =C2=A0(block size incr=
ease)
4,969.68 PH/s =C2=A0(no replace-by-fee)
3,132.09 PH/s =C2=A0(replace-by-fee)
Those numbers seem completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings of the=
current hashrate (< 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months for t=
he last doubling, and there's a block reward reduction due in that period t=
oo. (That might've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the past year, =
when doublings were slowing from once every ~45 days to once a year; it jus=
t doesn't seem a supportable prediction now)
That the PH/s rate is higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but given th=
at site also predicts USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555 with big=
ger blocks, so I assume that difference is mostly due to price. Also, 12.5b=
tc at $555 each is about 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price increase is =
realistic, it would compensate for almost all of the block reward reduction=
.
Daily transaction volume 168,438.22 tx/day =C2=A0(same block size) 193,773.=
08 tx/day =C2=A0(block size increase)
192,603.80 tx/day =C2=A0(no replace-by-fee) 168,406.73 tx/day =C2=A0(repla=
ce-by-fee)
That's only a 15% increase in transaction volume due to the block size incr=
ease; I would have expected more? 168k-194k tx/day is also only a 30%-50% i=
ncrease in transaction volume from 130k tx/day currently. If that's really =
the case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size would probably be enough for the =
next two years...
(Predicting that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to increa=
sing block sizes seems quite an indictment as far as centralisation risks g=
o; but given I'm not that convinced by the other predictions, I'm not sure =
I want to give that much weight to that one either)
Cheers,aj
--=20
Anthony Towns <aj@erisian.com.au>
bitcoin-dev mailing list
bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
_______________________________________________
bitcoin-dev mailing list
bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
------=_Part_9769_2068777552.1438756343021
Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8
Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
<html><head></head><body><div>Why not speculate on a real market? Pet=
er Sztorc proposed a sidechain that could be implemented now using Blockstr=
eam's method:</div><div><br /></div><div>http://www.truthcoin.info/blog/win=
-win-blocksize/</div><div><br /></div><div><br /><br /><div class=3D"acompl=
i_signature">--<br />MC</div><br /></div><br /><br /><br />
<div class=3D"gmail_quote">On Tue, Aug 4, 2015 at 8:08 PM -0700, "Eric=
Lombrozo via bitcoin-dev" <span dir=3D"ltr"><<a href=3D"mailto:bit=
coin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" target=3D"_blank">bitcoin-dev@lists.lin=
uxfoundation.org</a>></span> wrote:<br />
<br />
<blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1p=
x #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">
<div dir=3D"3D"ltr"">
<meta http-equiv=3D"Content-Type" content=3D"text/html charset=3Dutf-8" />R=
ather than speculating on fake markets, why don=E2=80=99t we use theory, em=
pirical data, and engineering to fix the damn problems?<div class=3D""><br =
class=3D"" /><div><blockquote type=3D"cite" class=3D""><div class=3D"">On A=
ug 4, 2015, at 11:28 AM, Owen via bitcoin-dev <<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin=
-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" class=3D"">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundatio=
n.org</a>> wrote:</div><br class=3D"Apple-interchange-newline" /><div cl=
ass=3D""><div class=3D"">Given there is no money at stake in these predicti=
on games, it is no surprise that the results are implausible.<br class=3D""=
/><br class=3D"" /><div class=3D"gmail_quote">On August 4, 2015 10:22:19 A=
M EDT, Anthony Towns via bitcoin-dev <<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@list=
s.linuxfoundation.org" class=3D"">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a>=
> wrote:<blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin: 0pt 0pt 0pt 0=
.8ex; border-left: 1px solid rgb(204, 204, 204); padding-left: 1ex;">
<div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D""><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-fami=
ly:monospace"><span style=3D"font-family:arial,sans-serif" class=3D"">On 4 =
August 2015 at 01:22, Gavin Andresen via bitcoin-dev </span><span dir=3D"lt=
r" style=3D"font-family:arial,sans-serif" class=3D""><<a href=3D"mailto:=
bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" target=3D"_blank" class=3D"">bitcoin=
-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a>></span><span style=3D"font-family:ari=
al,sans-serif" class=3D""> wrote:</span><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=
=3D"gmail_extra"><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quot=
e" style=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex">=
<div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D""><div class=3D"">And the preliminary results of =
using a prediction market to try to wrestle with the tough tradeoffs looks =
roughly correct to me, too:</div><div class=3D""> <a href=3D"ht=
tps://blocksizedebate.com/" target=3D"_blank" class=3D"">https://blocksized=
ebate.com/</a></div></div></blockquote><div class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></d=
iv><div class=3D""><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:monosp=
ace">=E2=80=8BThe scicast prediction market is shutdown atm (since early Ju=
ly?) so those numbers aren't live. But...</div><div class=3D"gmail_default"=
style=3D"font-family:monospace"><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail=
_default"><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">Network hash rat=
e</span><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"=
Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><sp=
an style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">3,255.17 PH/s (same blo=
ck size)</span></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-=
span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span style=
=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">5,032.64 PH/s (block size incre=
ase)</span><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><div class=
=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></f=
ont></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=
=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span><span style=3D"font-fami=
ly:monospace" class=3D"">4,969.68 PH/s (no replace-by-fee)</span><br =
class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" cl=
ass=3D""><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"white-space:pre"> </span>3=
,132.09 PH/s (replace-by-fee)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default=
"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></font></div><div cl=
ass=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">Those numbers see=
m completely implausible: that's ~2.9-3.6 doublings of the current hashrate=
(< 400PH/s) in 17 months, when it's taken 12 months for the last doubli=
ng, and there's a block reward reduction due in that period too. (That migh=
t've been a reasonable prediction sometime in the past year, when doublings=
were slowing from once every ~45 days to once a year; it just doesn't seem=
a supportable prediction now)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><fo=
nt face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></font></div><div class=
=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">That the PH/s rate i=
s higher with bigger blocks is surprising, but given that site also predict=
s USD/BTC will be $280 with no change but $555 with bigger blocks, so I ass=
ume that difference is mostly due to price. Also, 12.5btc at $555 each is a=
bout 23 btc at $300 each, so if that price increase is realistic, it would =
compensate for almost all of the block reward reduction.</font></div><div c=
lass=3D""><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></font></div=
></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">Dai=
ly transaction volume</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=
=3D"monospace" class=3D""><span class=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"white-spa=
ce:pre"> </span>168,438.22 tx/day (same block size)</font></div><div =
class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D""><span class=3D"=
Apple-tab-span" style=3D"white-space:pre"> </span>193,773.08 tx/day (=
block size increase)</font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><div class=3D=
"gmail_default"><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span c=
lass=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </=
span><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">192,603.80 tx/day &nb=
sp;(no replace-by-fee)</span></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><span class=
=3D"Apple-tab-span" style=3D"font-family:monospace;white-space:pre"> </span=
><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">168,406.73 tx/day (=
replace-by-fee)</span><br class=3D"" /></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><=
span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></span></d=
iv><div class=3D"gmail_default">That's only a 15% increase in transaction v=
olume due to the block size increase; I would have expected more? 168k-194k=
tx/day is also only a 30%-50% increase in transaction volume from 130k tx/=
day currently. If that's really the case, then a 1.5MB-2MB max block size w=
ould probably be enough for the next two years...</div><div class=3D""><spa=
n style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></span></div>=
<div class=3D""><span style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D"">(Predictin=
g that the node count will drop from ~5000 to ~1200 due to increasing block=
sizes seems quite an indictment as far as centralisation risks go; but giv=
en I'm not that convinced by the other predictions, I'm not sure I want to =
give that much weight to that one either)</span></div><div class=3D""><span=
style=3D"font-family:monospace" class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></span></div><=
/div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" class=3D"">Cheer=
s,</font></div></div><div class=3D"gmail_default"><font face=3D"monospace" =
class=3D"">aj</font></div><div class=3D""><br class=3D"" /></div></div>-- <=
br class=3D"" /><div class=3D"gmail_signature">Anthony Towns <<a href=3D=
"mailto:aj@erisian.com.au" target=3D"_blank" class=3D"">aj@erisian.com.au</=
a>></div>
</div></div><div style=3D"margin-top: 2.5em; margin-bottom: 1em; border-bot=
tom-width: 1px; border-bottom-style: solid; border-bottom-color: rgb(0, 0, =
0);" class=3D""><br class=3D"webkit-block-placeholder" /></div><pre class=
=3D"k9mail"><hr class=3D"" /><br class=3D"" />bitcoin-dev mailing list<br c=
lass=3D"" /><a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" class=
=3D"">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a><br class=3D"" /><a href=3D"=
https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev" class=3D"">=
https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev</a><br class=
=3D"" /></pre></blockquote></div></div>____________________________________=
___________<br class=3D"" />bitcoin-dev mailing list<br class=3D"" /><a hre=
f=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" class=3D"">bitcoin-dev@l=
ists.linuxfoundation.org</a><br class=3D"" />https://lists.linuxfoundation.=
org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev<br class=3D"" /></div></blockquote></div><=
br class=3D"" /></div>
</div>
</blockquote>
</div>
</body></html>
------=_Part_9769_2068777552.1438756343021--
|