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From: Alex Morcos <morcos@gmail.com>
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Cc: Bitcoin Dev <bitcoin-development@lists.sourceforge.net>
Subject: Re: [Bitcoin-development] Reworking the policy estimation code (fee
estimates)
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RE: 90% : I think it's fine to use 90% for anything other than 1
confirmation, but if you look at the real world data test I did, or the raw
data from this new code, you'll see that even the highest fee rate
transactions only get confirmed at about a 90% rate in 1 block, so that if
you use that as your cut-off you will sometimes get no answer and sometimes
get a very high fee rate and sometimes get a reasonable fee rate, it just
depends because the data is too noisy. I think thats just because there is
no good answer to that question. There is no fee you can put on your
transaction to guarantee greater than 90% chance of getting confirmed in
one block. I think 85% might be safe?
RE: tunable as command-line/bitcoin.conf: sounds good!
OK, sorry to have all this conversation on the dev list, maybe i'll turn
this into an actual PR if we want to comment on the code?
I just wanted to see if it even made sense to make a PR for this or this
isn't the way we wanted to go about it.
On Tue, Oct 28, 2014 at 10:58 AM, Gavin Andresen <gavinandresen@gmail.com>
wrote:
> On Tue, Oct 28, 2014 at 10:30 AM, Alex Morcos <morcos@gmail.com> wrote:
>>
>> Do you think it would make sense to make that 90% number an argument to
>> rpc call? For instance there could be a default (I would use 80%) but then
>> you could specify if you required a different certainty. It wouldn't
>> require any code changes and might make it easier for people to build more
>> complicated logic on top of it.
>>
>
> RE: 80% versus 90% : I think a default of 80% will get us a lot of "the
> fee estimation logic is broken, I want my transactions to confirm quick and
> a lot of them aren't confirming for 2 or 3 blocks."
>
> RE: RPC argument: I'm reluctant to give too many 'knobs' for the RPC
> interface. I think the default percentage makes sense as a
> command-line/bitcoin.conf option; I can imagine services that want to save
> on fees running with -estimatefeethreshold=0.5 (or
> -estimatefeethreshold=0.95 if as-fast-as-possible confirmations are
> needed). Setting both the number of confirmations and the estimation
> threshold on a transaction-by-transaction basis seems like overkill to me.
>
> --
> --
> Gavin Andresen
>
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<div dir=3D"ltr">RE: 90% : I think it's fine to use 90% for anything ot=
her than 1 confirmation, but if you look at the real world data test I did,=
or the raw data from this new code, you'll see that even the highest f=
ee rate transactions only get confirmed at about a 90% rate in 1 block, so =
that if you use that as your cut-off you will sometimes get no answer and s=
ometimes get a very high fee rate and sometimes get a reasonable fee rate, =
it just depends because the data is too noisy.=C2=A0 I think thats just bec=
ause there is no good answer to that question.=C2=A0 There is no fee you ca=
n put on your transaction to guarantee greater than 90% chance of getting c=
onfirmed in one block.=C2=A0 I think 85% might be safe?<div><br></div><div>=
RE: tunable as command-line/bitcoin.conf: sounds good!</div><div><br></div>=
<div>OK, sorry to have all this conversation on the dev list, maybe i'l=
l turn this into an actual PR if we want to comment on the code?</div><div>=
I just wanted to see if it even made sense to make a PR for this or this is=
n't the way we wanted to go about it.</div><div><br></div><div><br></di=
v><div><br></div></div><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><br><div class=3D"gmail_q=
uote">On Tue, Oct 28, 2014 at 10:58 AM, Gavin Andresen <span dir=3D"ltr">&l=
t;<a href=3D"mailto:gavinandresen@gmail.com" target=3D"_blank">gavinandrese=
n@gmail.com</a>></span> wrote:<br><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" styl=
e=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div di=
r=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_extra"><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><span class=
=3D"">On Tue, Oct 28, 2014 at 10:30 AM, Alex Morcos <span dir=3D"ltr"><<=
a href=3D"mailto:morcos@gmail.com" target=3D"_blank">morcos@gmail.com</a>&g=
t;</span> wrote:</span><span class=3D""><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" s=
tyle=3D"margin:0 0 0 .8ex;border-left:1px #ccc solid;padding-left:1ex"><div=
dir=3D"ltr"><div>Do you think it would make sense to make that 90% number =
an argument to rpc call?=C2=A0 For instance there could be a default (I wou=
ld use 80%) but then you could specify if you required a different certaint=
y.=C2=A0 It wouldn't require any code changes and might make it easier =
for people to build more complicated logic on top of it.</div></div></block=
quote><div><br></div></span><div>RE: 80% versus 90% : =C2=A0I think a defau=
lt of 80% will get us a lot of "the fee estimation logic is broken, I =
want my transactions to confirm quick and a lot of them aren't confirmi=
ng for 2 or 3 blocks."</div><div><br></div><div>RE: RPC argument: =C2=
=A0I'm reluctant to give too many 'knobs' for the RPC interface=
. I think the default percentage makes sense as a command-line/bitcoin.conf=
option; I can imagine services that want to save on fees running with -est=
imatefeethreshold=3D0.5 =C2=A0(or -estimatefeethreshold=3D0.95 if as-fast-a=
s-possible confirmations are needed). Setting both the number of confirmati=
ons and the estimation threshold on a transaction-by-transaction basis seem=
s like overkill to me.</div></div><span class=3D"HOEnZb"><font color=3D"#88=
8888"><div><br></div>-- <br>--<br>Gavin Andresen<br>
</font></span></div></div>
</blockquote></div><br></div>
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