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From: Billy Tetrud <billy.tetrud@gmail.com>
Date: Wed, 16 Mar 2022 23:17:20 -0500
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To: Jeremy Rubin <j@rubin.io>, 
 Bitcoin Protocol Discussion <bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org>
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Subject: Re: [bitcoin-dev] Speedy Trial
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@Aj Your steps seem reasonable. I definitely agree step one (talking to
each other) is obviously the ideal solution, when it works.

Step 2 (futures market) is the option I would say I understand the least.
In any case, a futures market seems like it only incorporates the
opinions/predictions of the group of people willing to bet money on things
like this. This is likely to be a rather small group of particular types of
people. I find it a bit difficult to reconcile the theories that betting
rings like this are good at predicting against the inherent selection bias
of the group of betting individuals. Going just by number of individuals
(or probably even by amount of currency risked) this seems like a futures
market would inherently be a small and biased group. Potentially useful,
but I wouldn't assume that it could be taken stand-alone as a proxy for
consensus.

I'm curious what you think about a coin-weighted poll like I suggested here
<https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-dev/2021-May/019022.html>
being
added to that list of steps? Surely this would be a broader group of people
than a futures market, tho still obviously a group subject to selection
bias.

@jeremy drops the bomb. I'm sure Jorge will be running this within the
year.



On Tue, Mar 15, 2022 at 12:25 PM Jeremy Rubin via bitcoin-dev <
bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org> wrote:

> Boker tov bitcoin devs,
>
> A mechanism of soft-forking against activation exists.  What more do you
>> want?
>>
>
> Agreed -- that should be enough.
>
>
>
>> Are we supposed to write the code on behalf of this hypothetical group of
>> users who may or may not exist for them just so that they can have a node
>> that remains stalled on Speedy Trial lockin?
>>
> That simply isn't reasonable, but if you think it is, I invite you to
>> create such a fork.
>>
>
> Disagree.
>
> It is a reasonable ask.
>
> I've done it in about 40 lines of python:
> https://github.com/jeremyrubin/forkd
>
> Merry Christmas Jorge, please vet the code carefully before running.
>
> Peace,
>
> Jeremy
> _______________________________________________
> bitcoin-dev mailing list
> bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org
> https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev
>

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<div dir=3D"ltr">@Aj Your steps seem reasonable. I definitely agree step on=
e (talking to each other) is obviously the ideal solution, when it works.=
=C2=A0<div><br></div><div>Step 2 (futures market) is the option I would say=
 I understand the least. In any case, a futures market seems like it only i=
ncorporates the opinions/predictions of the group of people willing to bet =
money on things like this. This is likely to be a rather small group of par=
ticular types of people. I find it a bit difficult to reconcile=C2=A0the th=
eories that betting rings like this are good at predicting against the inhe=
rent selection bias of the group of betting individuals. Going just by numb=
er of individuals (or probably even by amount of currency risked) this seem=
s like a futures market would inherently be a small and biased group. Poten=
tially useful, but I wouldn&#39;t assume that it could be taken stand-alone=
 as a proxy for consensus.=C2=A0</div><div><br></div><div>I&#39;m curious w=
hat you think about <a href=3D"https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/=
bitcoin-dev/2021-May/019022.html" target=3D"_blank">a coin-weighted poll li=
ke I suggested here</a>=C2=A0being added to that list of steps? Surely this=
 would be a broader group of people than a futures market, tho still obviou=
sly a group subject to selection bias.=C2=A0</div><div><br></div><div>@jere=
my drops the bomb. I&#39;m sure Jorge will be running this within the year.=
=C2=A0<br><div><br></div><div><br></div></div></div><br><div class=3D"gmail=
_quote"><div dir=3D"ltr" class=3D"gmail_attr">On Tue, Mar 15, 2022 at 12:25=
 PM Jeremy Rubin via bitcoin-dev &lt;<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.li=
nuxfoundation.org" target=3D"_blank">bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org<=
/a>&gt; wrote:<br></div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0=
px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><=
div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><div><div class=3D"gmail_default=
" style=3D"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb=
(0,0,0)">Boker tov bitcoin devs,</div></div><div><br></div><blockquote clas=
s=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid r=
gb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quot=
e"><div>A mechanism of soft-forking against activation exists.=C2=A0 What m=
ore do you want?<br></div></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div><div=
 class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;fo=
nt-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Agreed -- that should be enough.</div><br><=
/div><div>=C2=A0</div><blockquote class=3D"gmail_quote" style=3D"margin:0px=
 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,204,204);padding-left:1ex"><di=
v dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><div>Are we supposed to write the =
code on behalf of this hypothetical group of users who may or may not exist=
 for them just so that they can have a node that remains stalled on Speedy =
Trial lockin?=C2=A0</div></div></div></blockquote><blockquote class=3D"gmai=
l_quote" style=3D"margin:0px 0px 0px 0.8ex;border-left:1px solid rgb(204,20=
4,204);padding-left:1ex"><div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_quote"><div>T=
hat simply isn&#39;t reasonable, but if you think it is, I invite you to cr=
eate such a fork.<br></div></div></div></blockquote><div><br></div><div cla=
ss=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-s=
ize:small;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Disagree.</div><div class=3D"gmail_default" sty=
le=3D"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,=
0)"><br></div><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:arial,helve=
tica,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0)">It is a reasonable ask.</=
div><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-=
serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br></div><div class=3D"gmail_defau=
lt" style=3D"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:r=
gb(0,0,0)">I&#39;ve done it in about 40 lines of python: <a href=3D"https:/=
/github.com/jeremyrubin/forkd" target=3D"_blank">https://github.com/jeremyr=
ubin/forkd</a></div><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:arial=
,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br></div><div clas=
s=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-si=
ze:small;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Merry Christmas Jorge, please vet the code caref=
ully before running.</div><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family=
:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0)"><br></div><di=
v class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;f=
ont-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Peace,</div><div class=3D"gmail_default" s=
tyle=3D"font-family:arial,helvetica,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,=
0,0)"><br></div><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-family:arial,hel=
vetica,sans-serif;font-size:small;color:rgb(0,0,0)">Jeremy</div></div></div=
>
_______________________________________________<br>
bitcoin-dev mailing list<br>
<a href=3D"mailto:bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org" target=3D"_blank">=
bitcoin-dev@lists.linuxfoundation.org</a><br>
<a href=3D"https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mailman/listinfo/bitcoin-dev" =
rel=3D"noreferrer" target=3D"_blank">https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/mail=
man/listinfo/bitcoin-dev</a><br>
</blockquote></div>

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