Re: poly: Re: Why interest rates may stay low

Robin Hanson writes:
> At 07:36 PM 3/26/98 -0500, you wrote:
> >> My claim is that the main direct cause is that all else equal there is mor
e
> >> uncertainty about long-term assets.
> >
> >I can't say that I disagree with that simple (and in my opinion,
> >obvious) claim. Most of what I've said, in fact, simply an elaboration
> >of the impacts of that increased uncertainty.
>
> Then you should agree with my claim that started all this, that
> *if* investors believed that they could get above average returns
> by investing in projects now on the "final conquest of the cosmos",
> they would be investing in such projects.

I agree with that claim. I don't agree with some of the subclaims that
have been made along the way, but I fully agree that the reason people
aren't investing is that they don't have a belief in the investment.

> Hence the lack of investment implies a lack of belief. That is, if
> the uncertainty were taken away, they impediments to long-term
> investment would go away.

I don't think there is any way to take the uncertainty away,
though. Just too many variables -- revolutions, alien life forms, the
total alteration of the human race by nanotech, etc.

Perry
Received on Fri Mar 27 05:03:35 1998