Re: poly: Re: Why interest rates may stay low

At 07:36 PM 3/26/98 -0500, you wrote:
>> My claim is that the main direct cause is that all else equal there is more
>> uncertainty about long-term assets.
>
>I can't say that I disagree with that simple (and in my opinion,
>obvious) claim. Most of what I've said, in fact, simply an elaboration
>of the impacts of that increased uncertainty.

Then you should agree with my claim that started all this, that
*if* investors believed that they could get above average returns
by investing in projects now on the "final conquest of the cosmos",
they would be investing in such projects. Hence the lack of
investment implies a lack of belief. That is, if the uncertainty
were taken away, they impediments to long-term investment would go
away.

Robin Hanson
hanson@econ.berkeley.edu http://hanson.berkeley.edu/
RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-8614
Received on Fri Mar 27 00:48:43 1998