From: Ken Clements (Ken@InnovationOnDmnd.com)
Date: Tue Nov 30 1999 - 14:20:01 MST
Harvey Newstrom wrote:
> Everything will be
> faster and on a grander scale, but basically the same. We will adapt to new
> technology, just as we upgrade our PCs or game systems to a new version
> without much thought. A few weeks later, we forget how different the new
> system was, and go on with our lives.
>
> Yes, we have come a far way from living as nomads in the desert, but our
> cities with computers and networks and health advances, are still basically
> the same. We have politics, crime, debates, problems.
> --
I would like you to consider that certain changes are about to happen which
essentially guarantee that the future will not be just the past writ larger.
During the last 50,000 years human nature has changed very slowly while the
memes around us have evolved very rapidly. This is why you see the similarities
between villages of old and cities of today. The slow pace of change of human
nature has acted as a stabilizing force on the rapid change of the technology.
I believe it is our limitations that primarily define what we are, and provide a
context in which our accomplishments have meaning. (I also believe this is why
we write constitutions for institutions and make them difficult to change, as
well as avoid self modifying code unless there's no other way to do it.)
The unprecedented event that is about to happen is the removal of the limitation
that human nature only change slowly. Our memes have evolved to the point of
handing us the tools necessary to reach inside ourselves and change anything.
Together with the tremendous capability this promises, a basic failure of
pattern integrity will probably result as a Pandora's box of positive feedback
loops are unleashed to spiral out of control.
As an example, I would like to quote a scene from a movie, although I generally
try not to do this because movies are based on the suspension of disbelief. The
movie is _Lawrence of Arabia_, and the scene takes place while Lawrence is out
in the desert with his guide and they are talking late into the night. The
guide is trying to understand why Lawrence, who is would be well off in England,
a rich country, would be wandering around out there in the desert, where there
is basically nothing, when he (Lawrence) could have "whatever you want".
Lawrence replied, "Yes, but you can't want what you want". In the future it
will be possible to reach in and select what you want (your motivation). Having
done so, you will have changed a basic component of your identity, most likely
leading to more change.
I do not know what will happen to the future, but it seems clear to me that all
things, ideas, institutions, and entities that rely on limitations to preserve
their pattern integrity will be in big trouble.
-Ken
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