From: Doug Bailey (Doug.Bailey@ey.com)
Date: Tue Jul 27 1999 - 11:42:34 MDT
Billy Brown wrote:
>
> [....]
>
> Unrealistic Technology Expectations [....]
> Short Time Horizons [....]
> Insufficent Appreciation of the Effects of Diversity [....]
> Exaggerated Respect for the Immensity of Space [....]
> Exaggerated Sense of Mortality[....]
Four possibile explanations for the Fermi Paradox:
(1) The Greener Pastures Exodus: This is more specific (and
weaker) of the two explanations. The GPE theory states that
as civilizations climb up the technology ladder they invariably
identify some Goal or Objective to pursue. This Goal or Objective
can be a host of goals, it might even vary from civilization to
civilization, but invariably civilizations realize that the
"settings" of our universe are not optimal. Assuming creating
your own universe is more efficient than overhauling an existing
one, the civilizations take the plunge. There are problems with
this explanation, not the least of which is:
(a) What about the members of the civilization that don't
want to take the plunge but instead want to engage in
megascale engineering projects? The only explanation
would be that they too eventually succumb to the
GPE theory before making any major (visible) progress.
(2) The Redundant Universe: This theory postulates that the cost/benefit
ratio of exploring the universe at length works against large scale
exploration and/or colonization. Technically, if a civilization
developed a working Theory of Everything, there would be no knowledge
they could acquire in deep space that they couldn't ascertain through
thought expirements, actual expirements, etc. In short, the protons
on Earth are the same as the protons on Planet X. Robust uploading or
virtual reality capabilities would allow the satisfaction of any
aesthetic desire, making "star treks" poor planning.
(3) The Singleton: I think Nick Bostrom coined this idea (I could be
wrong) and I may butcher it beyond recognition in my explanation.
Basically, the singleton hypothesis states that as an intelligent
system increases its intelligence, it will invariably converge on
an optimal intelligent state. Any civilization/entity questing for
superintelligence will converge upon this optimal state and presumably
have similar goals and objectives (I suppose GPE theory is a permutation
of this concept). While we have no clue what such a SI would want to
do with its time (other than continue to optimize), if it did not
involve exploration (e.g., a combination with the Redundant Universe
theory) then unless the SI developed in our cosmic backyard we might
not ever get a chance to notice it.
(4) The Republican House Theory: Or it could simply be that the
civilization's conservative controlled House of Representantives
cut its space exploration budget by 1.3 billion space bucks so
they can not afford to explore space.
Have at it.
Doug Bailey
doug.bailey@ey.com
*******************************************************************************
Note: The information contained in this message may be privileged and confidential and protected from disclosure. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, or an employee or agent responsible for delivering this message to the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please notify us immediately by replying to the message and deleting it from your computer. Thank you. Ernst & Young LLP
*******************************************************************************
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Fri Nov 01 2002 - 15:04:35 MST