From: Billy Brown (bbrown@conemsco.com)
Date: Wed Feb 10 1999 - 13:08:02 MST
Paul Hughes wrote:
> Here's the scenario:
>
> 1) Y2K problems in embedded chips cause a certain critical
> minimum of power stations around the US to shut down..
> Because it's the middle of the winter, the other stations
> along the grid are already taxed to the limit. These
> critical minimum failures start a cascade or domino effect
> by draining power from other stations, thereby shutting them
> down. This taxes the remaining operational infrastructure
> even further and finally shuts the entire grid down. A
> nationwide, if not global wide power outage occurs..
The problem is unlikely to start with, because most embedded chips don't use
date information for anything especially critical - your reports might come
out looking strange, but the machinery will probably keep running. Also,
the electric companies (like all other private organizations) are working to
make sure it doesn't happen - they stand to loose a lot of money if it does.
If a problem does occur, it can't spread in this fashion for several
reasons:
1) Winter is a slack period for most electric utilities, so they will have
some excess capacity (remember, A/C pulls far more current than a heater
unless you live in Alaska). Thus, loosing a small number of plants will not
be a serious problem.
2) Modern grids are designed to survive localized outages, because they
happen all the time. At worst, you just get a blackout around the plant
that failed.
> 2) What does the US government always do in these
> situations: Declares a State of Emergency..
Probably.
> 3) Meanwhile the power outage hinders the entire economic
> infrastructure - with the most critical being food and
> water. Since most people do not have stashes of food for
> such occasions, they will grow *very* desperate and begin
> roaming and perhaps robbing other people for food and
> water. This in turn precipitates widespread rioting,
> looting and general mayhem.
It is not uncommon for a hurricane, earthquake or other natural disaster to
knock out an area's power for days or even weeks. The response is nothing
like what you predict - people just band together to cope as best they can.
Americans aren't going to start looting and pillaging unless people start
starving to death, which would require a complete paralysis of all
transportation lasting at least 4-6 weeks. IMO you could vaporize every
computer in the world and still not get a result that extreme - you
certainly won't get it from temporary computer glitches.
> 4) What does the US government always do in these
> situations: Send in the troops! Or in this case declare
> Martial Law..
The traditional response is curfews backed up by national guard patrols. If
the military (which is far less Y2K ready than the private sector) is in
good enough shape to do more than that, there won't be a problem in the
first place.
> 5) What exactly does this mean? According the ex-military
> people I know, they say the first most likely action on part
> of the military will be to conduct door-to-door searches to
> confiscate everyone's firearms. They all will use airborne
> ground penetrating radar to locate via GPS exactly where
> people have *hidden* their firearms. Obviously they will
> not confiscate everyone's firearms, but will probably be
> successful in getting most of them..
You can only do that in foreign countries - attempting it in America would
be political suicide for the President. Besides, they can't possibly
conduct such a search in any reasonable amount of time, and I doubt that the
troops would comply with such an order anyway (at least, most of the service
personnel I know say they would refuse). It violates too many
Constitutional provisions for even today's politicians to stomach.
Nor does the military have any magical way of locating all of the guns.
Finding buried objects is still difficult at best (that's why mines work so
well, and why there are so many abandoned minefields all over the world).
Finding something in your closet is impossible - the only way to know
whether you have a rifle or a golf club in there is to open the door and
look.
> 6) Shortly following arms confiscation, they will set a
> curfew. Martial Law curfew is typically enforced strictly,
> with the use of deadly force if necessary. "Anyone found
> out after 9pm without proper 'paperwork' or work permits
> will be detained or even shot on sight".
Not shot on sight. Remember, these orders are mostly enforced by the
National Guard, which is composed of people who are only soldiers part-time.
Unless they are afraid of getting shot, they aren't going to be especially
violent about enforcing their orders.
Besides, you couldn't even begin to enforce a national curfew. The
worst-case scenario would be curfews in a few of the hardest-hit areas for a
period of a few weeks. By then any Y2K-related service outages would be
over, and the reason for the intervention would no longer exist.
> 7) Once this all sweeping Martial Law is instituted, why
> would they reverse it? Since they now have the control they
> have long sought, they will not give it up without a fight..
> Since the majority of the population will now be under their
> control, such an organized "revolution" will *not* likely
> materialize in any reasonable period of time - we may be
> stuck in a totalitarian hell for decades or longer..
Even if everything you outlined happened, 'They' still don't have control -
because there is no 'They'. The military isn't going to establish a
totalitarian government because its members don't want to. The President
can't seize power because the armed forces won't follow such orders. Who
does that leave?
> Ok, this is *not* an optimistic scenario. I more than most
> people I know Want an optimistic scenario. Yet I can't help
> but feel the above scenario is a likely one..
>
> I'm posting this on the extropian list, because you guys are
> the most intelligent and informed people I know, who also
> share my transhumanist aspirations. I look forward to your
> comments, critiques and dissections. I hope there is
> something I'm missing in this "big picture". I more than
> anyone want to be wrong about this. Should I be paranoid,
> or are optimistic times more likely?
IMHO, the most likely scenario:
Most private organizations suffer only minor Y2K glitches - many will have
no problems at all, because they are already compliant. Most of the rest
will suffer problems of varying severity, but very few of them will be
unable to function. For these 'worst offenders', the time needed to resume
normal operations will vary from a few hours to as much as a week or two.
The only companies that go out of business will be those that are already in
serious financial trouble AND that have no serious compliance effort
underway (which is a vanishingly small number).
Most government agencies will not be ready. They will suffer widespread
system failures that will severely curtail their operations for at least
several weeks. (Un)fortunately, the government doesn't have to be
functional to survive. The first half of 2000 will see lots of squabbling,
political grandstanding, and finger-pointing, and lots of records will
become hopelessly muddled. However, they can always hire enough people to
do the most essential tasks by hand while they fix things. The social
security checks will still go out, the IRS will still demand your money, and
production of Congressional hot air will continue to exceed quota.
Now, a lot of 'less essential' systems will be down for the count - things
like FBI fingerprint searches, Brady-bill background checks, and the
government's internal accounting systems. The IRS may not know how much you
really owe, and OSHA will probably have no idea what they told you to do
last month. However, these sorts of problems hardly spell the end of
civilization. I'm sure the government will spend a staggering amount of
money on new computer systems in 2000/2001, but eventually they'll get
things sorted out. By the end of 2000 their systems will probably be in
better shape than they are now, due to the urgent effort to throw out and
replace anything that doesn't work.
So, there's no need to bury your guns and lay in a year's supply of food.
Just make sure you aren't relying on the Feds for anything essential, and
you're in good shape.
Billy Brown, MCSE+I
bbrown@conemsco.com
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