From: Paul Hughes (planetp@aci.net)
Date: Wed Feb 10 1999 - 10:51:51 MST
Ok,
I know I've brought this issue up once before. At that time
only two people responded. Hopefully this will generate
more responses this time:
On a daily basis I do my best to maintain a practical
optimism. Beyond this however, I can't help but play out
what I see are likely U.S. scenarios *if* certain things
happen:
Here's the scenario:
1) Y2K problems in embedded chips cause a certain critical
minimum of power stations around the US to shut down.
Because it's the middle of the winter, the other stations
along the grid are already taxed to the limit. These
critical minimum failures start a cascade or domino effect
by draining power from other stations, thereby shutting them
down. This taxes the remaining operational infrastructure
even further and finally shuts the entire grid down. A
nationwide, if not global wide power outage occurs.
2) What does the US government always do in these
situations: Declares a State of Emergency.
3) Meanwhile the power outage hinders the entire economic
infrastructure - with the most critical being food and
water. Since most people do not have stashes of food for
such occasions, they will grow *very* desperate and begin
roaming and perhaps robbing other people for food and
water. This in turn precipitates widespread rioting,
looting and general mayhem.
4) What does the US government always do in these
situations: Send in the troops! Or in this case declare
Martial Law.
5) What exactly does this mean? According the ex-military
people I know, they say the first most likely action on part
of the military will be to conduct door-to-door searches to
confiscate everyone's firearms. They all will use airborne
ground penetrating radar to locate via GPS exactly where
people have *hidden* their firearms. Obviously they will
not confiscate everyone's firearms, but will probably be
successful in getting most of them.
6) Shortly following arms confiscation, they will set a
curfew. Martial Law curfew is typically enforced strictly,
with the use of deadly force if necessary. "Anyone found
out after 9pm without proper 'paperwork' or work permits
will be detained or even shot on sight".
7) Once this all sweeping Martial Law is instituted, why
would they reverse it? Since they now have the control they
have long sought, they will not give it up without a fight.
Since the majority of the population will now be under their
control, such an organized "revolution" will *not* likely
materialize in any reasonable period of time - we may be
stuck in a totalitarian hell for decades or longer.
Ok, this is *not* an optimistic scenario. I more than most
people I know Want an optimistic scenario. Yet I can't help
but feel the above scenario is a likely one.
I'm posting this on the extropian list, because you guys are
the most intelligent and informed people I know, who also
share my transhumanist aspirations. I look forward to your
comments, critiques and dissections. I hope there is
something I'm missing in this "big picture". I more than
anyone want to be wrong about this. Should I be paranoid,
or are optimistic times more likely?
Paul
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