Re: questioning Y2K

From: mark@unicorn.com
Date: Tue Oct 27 1998 - 06:48:03 MST


Harvey Newstrom [harv@gate.net] wrote:
>My predicition is
>that 99% of the errors will be fixed in time, but that the 1% left will
>wreak havoc.

Personally I suspect more like 10%, but the point is the same.

> Imagine just one satellite failing, or one airport not
>being able to fly, or one major computer network being down, or one
>phone company going dead,

But that's easily imagined; we get these kind of problems and deal with
them. Y2K is more likely to be one satellite failing AND one airport shut
down AND one major computer network down AND one phone company dead AND
one state without power AND one stock exchange shut down AND one brand of
automobile refusing to run AND one O/S failing AND one country mistakenly
launching missiles (though I doubt the latter).

Any one of those problems can be solved rapidly and several can be solved
simultaneously. The real question is whether we reach the critical point
where so many things are broken that the interactions prevent us fixing any
of the problems. If we don't we'll be OK in a few days to a few months, if
we do we're hosed.

    Mark



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