From: E. Shaun Russell (e_shaun@uniserve.com)
Date: Sat Oct 24 1998 - 23:31:09 MDT
Eliezer wrote:
>>
>> By the year 3000, it goes almost without saying that most humans will
>> have the means and opportunity to evolve to the transhuman stage. My
>> question--will we have seen the first posthuman(s) by then? How many?
>> In what form?
>
>By the year 2050 at the absolute latest (assuming no civilization-destroying
>wars) I expect that there will be nothing recognizably mortal, much less
>human, in our Solar System. It's a matter of positive feedback.
Out of curiosity, what parameters are you basing this hypothesis on?
True, technological progress is being manifested at a rapidly quickening
pace, but the moral mindset of this planet's human habitat is generally
stubborn, pessimistic and myopic. Given the opportunity of "right here,
right now" transcendence into a higher form, it is doubtful that every
single mortal would want to upload. There is far to much human stigma.
Furthermore, the assumption that technology will have progressed *that* far
in the next fifty years is not an extrapolation that I would care to gamble
on. Though I would honestly love for this claim to be true, my optimism
wanes in the face of my realism. Show me good, hard, *tangible* evidence
for your hypothesis and I will probably believe it as well.
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E. Shaun Russell Musician, Poet, ExI Member
==============================> Transhumanities editor for Homo Excelsior
Kineticize your potential. http://www.excelsior.org
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