Why Do We Die?

From: Robin Hanson (hanson@econ.berkeley.edu)
Date: Mon Jul 06 1998 - 12:26:43 MDT


Those interested in life-extension should be interested to learn
that health specialists are still quite ignorant about some really
big factors that cause some people to die, and others to live.

Sociologists and other social scientists have long studied some
very strong correlations between social status and health, but
medical science has been slow to accept that wealth causes health.

The June 3, 1998 Journal of the American Medical Association leads
with a study that medical researchers consider careful enough to
command their attention. An abstract is at:
http://www.ama-assn.org/sci-pubs/journals/archive/jama/vol_279/no_21/oc72105a.htm

Here are the death rate ratio parameters from their model:

Age 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
            1.0 2.66 3.46 9.30 16.78 40.00
Sex Male Female
           1.0 .41
Race NonBlack Black
               1.0 1.19
Residence Rural Suburban City
           1.0 1.16 1.52
Education 16+yrs 12-15 0 -11
           1.0 .95 .90
Income 30K$+ 10-29K$ <10K$
            1.0 2.14 2.77
Smoking Never current former
            1.0 1.26 1.28
Alcohol drinks/mo. Moderate None Heavy
                         1.0 1.13 .85
Body Mass Normal Underweight Overweight
             1.0 2.03 .94
Physical Activity Quintiles
    5(high) 4 3 2 1(low)
       1.0 1.46 1.60 2.25 2.91

The article and media about it have focused on the income
parameters, which are indeed striking. But other parameters
are also striking.

While smoking gets tons of media attention, it only raises
mortality rates by ~27%. And being black is only a 19% hit.
In contrast, living in a city raises mortality by 50%,
relative to being rural, and being a man raises mortality by
a factor of 2.5. Drinking alcohol and being overweight don't
much matter, but physical activity matters for a factor of 3,
as much as income does.

Robin Hanson
hanson@econ.berkeley.edu http://hanson.berkeley.edu/
RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-2627



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