From: Avatar Polymorph (avatarpolymorph@hotmail.com)
Date: Sat Dec 21 2002 - 19:59:01 MST
WHY SADDAM IS STILL IN POWER
Saddam Hussein gained his popularity in Iraq as a pan-Arab nationalist in
the style of Nasser, nationalizing the oil industry and distributing some of
it to the people in the form of education, roads and development - the rest
being purloined for himself, his family and the military. Nationalists liked
his attempted confiscation of the border oil region from Iran and his
attempted annexation of Kuwait, which they considered an artificial state
created by the UK, and a "corrupt" one at that (i.e. non-Ba'athist).
Both failed invasions did not result in the loss of Iraqi land. In this
sense, Saddam Hussein can claim not to have "lost" these wars.
Of course, his secret police and occasional acts of extermination ensure
opposition is punished violently.
The closest comparison is not perhaps Caligula (though Saddam is a sadist
and megalomaniac) but the late dictator Ceausescu of Romania.
WHY THE US WILL GO TO WAR
As I have argued previously, I believe the US is really concerned to nip a
non-Western nuclear arms race in the bud. China's 300 nuclear weapons are
presently the only non-Western ones outside of India and Pakistan (I rate
Israel's 200 as being "western"). The US cannot continue with disarmament in
tandem with Russia while Iraq, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and India attempt
to arm themselves or increase their nuclear weapons numbers. Left unchecked,
these states could increase the non-Western tally by hundreds, altering the
global strategic balance which has been in place for decades. Should any of
them go "rogue", for example Pakistan after an Islamic revolution, the
danger escalates tremendously.
The US can afford some minor losses of troops in light of the Sept 11
victims.
However, it has to act quickly before public opinion allows the Twin Towers
massacre to be forgotten.
The invasion of Iraq will be a sideshow intended to force Iran and Iraq to
halt nuclear weapons development. Without air power, Iraq will collapse
quickly with a minimum of ground losses for the Americans and British.
I would guess the next steps will be [as I have argued previously]:
. further boosting of the limited ABM system (already announced for Alaska
and possibly Europe)
. an immediate request for Iran and North Korea to open their nuclear
facilities to inspectors, followed by surgical bombing if this is refused
. following resolution of Iran and North Korea, similar demands on Pakistan
and India. There is a small possibility that India might be allowed to keep
some weapons under supervision, but given the Pakistan-Indian animosity
"even handed disarmament" is more likely.
. long term development of satellite ABM, electro-magnetic pulse cannon
technology, laser disabling systems (for attacking ICBMs) through ground,
airborne and satellite platforms. Also increased development of automated
bomber and fighter planes (probably some of this is hidden secretly in
George Bush's request for nearly a trillion dollars of addition military
spending last week).
THE MILITARY REALITY
On a purely military level, there are only nuclear powers. In a "serious"
war the west holds all the nuclear cards. America, Russia, France, the UK
and Israel vastly outnumber China's nuclear forces, by a factor of 45 to 1.
Atomic bombs can stop a fleet in the ocean, destroy a country's major
cities, destroy tank forces and so on. No military opposition could
currently defeat the west under ANY scenario. (Note I am talking about
defeat, not damage).
America has only two choices, under the doctrine of worst-case military
scenario: build up its own nuclear force and ABM systems (at extreme cost)
or prevent another arms race in the third world right now - and, indeed, an
arms race in the most unstable area of the third world, where revolutions,
hatred of the west and interstate warfare are common.
[The above views are not my personal views on what is right or wrong, or
justifiable, only an assessment of the current position from a traditional
military point of view.]
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