From: Spudboy100@aol.com
Date: Sat Sep 14 2002 - 15:03:46 MDT
Dale Opined:
<<
What is the threshhold event you imagine constitutes the
singularity that is universally passed through in this way? Is it
Drextech? Widespread uploading? Warp technology? What? Why not say
agriculture made us a post-singularity society? Bruce Sterling seems to
suggest that the singularity is reached when longevity medicine succeeds
in increasing life expectancy one year per year. Vinge has it happening
once computers outpace human brains. Hannah Arendt argued decades ago
that Sputnik represented that kind of shift. Treating "the" singularity as
an Event we can characterize with confidence seems glib, and to introduce
confusions into discussions of technological development. >>
Dale, Vinge has to be correct since which of the technologies listed, seems
closest to the dreams of science fiction (aka fanatsy)?
The computer or computer electronics is the fastest horse on the plains, by
far. Biotech is much slower, as is , actual medical progress in general.
Spaceflight is sluggesh in the extreme (when's the next Martian Colony
shuttle, anyway?). As for Bruce Sterling's argiculture being a singularity,
it appears to have happended over several milenia, in different geographies,
prompts me to ask; why not the water wheel, or sailing ships, or for that
matter, the French tickler?
It has to be puters' because, despite the lack of, dreamed for, AI, computer
electronics is still the most prodigious game in town.
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