From: gts (gts@optexinc.com)
Date: Fri Sep 13 2002 - 12:16:35 MDT
I suppose I should tell you all that I am, among other things, a former
investment advisor. My first love is science, particularly health
science, but in the early 80's I was inspired by Ronald Reagan's
policies to jump into the money management business. I obtained my
Series 7 General Securities License, then convinced Merrill Lynch to
allow me to represent them. I spent the next ten years advising clients
and riding the bull market. I left the business about ten years ago to
pursue ventures related to health science.
In mid-1985 I appeared as a special guest on a local PBS televised
talk-show program called "Stockmarket Today." The Dow was at about 1200.
My colleagues at Merrill thought I was bold to predict on television
that the Dow would reach 2000 within two years, but history shows that I
was far too conservative!
Emlyn O'regan wrote:
> The tricky bit is that this house of cards can yield real
> money. Valuations based on the perceived valuations of others
> seem shonky, but after the fact, gains made are absolutely real.
Everything you say about the vagaries of the stockmarket is true. People
have different perceptions about the future, and different perceptions
of the perceptions that others have about the future, etc. And these
differing perceptions drive prices. But as you also imply at the end of
your message, in the passage quoted above, there must be something real
underlying the subjective house of cards.
As I've been saying, the objective reality behind all the subjective
perceptions is *real corporate profits*.
Real people own real companies that make real profits. Those real people
can then spend their real profits on real goods and services, or they
can re-invest their real profits into more real companies to make more
real profits.
The rest is all smoke and mirrors.
-gts
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