From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Thu Aug 15 2002 - 06:31:24 MDT
On Thursday, August 15, 2002, at 01:25 am, John K Clark wrote:
> "Harvey Newstrom" <mail@HarveyNewstrom.com> Wrote:
>
>> This [bluffing] merely trains the world that they should ignore
>> us when we threaten war.
>
> Like anything else it can be overused but it would be crazy to eliminate
> bluffing from your arsenal of weapons. Bluffing is about 90% of poker
> and
> poker is not a trivial game, computers are good a chess but still
> crummy at
> poker.
I have already learned to discount most of what Bush says. He bluffs
all the time or says things that aren't true. He even brags about
creating a disinformation propaganda machine. How can any country trust
him or waste any resources cooperating with plans that may or may not be
real? Any country would be a fool to actually try to help Bush invade
Iraq, or try to cooperate with any of our military plans. They can't
tell if they are real or not.
Imagine a hapless ally spending millions in military preparation only to
have Bush say it was a bluff. Instead, our prudent allies are going to
sit back and do nothing to help us. Only naive countries or those with
little experience will help us. Once they get burned, they won't be
willing to help us again. Remember that most of the terrorist nations
were once our allies who became disgusted when our "help" backfired.
Poker is a poor analogy, because the winner pays nothing for the bluff.
In the real world, promises and declarations are expected to be paid
later. Such bluffs are more like bad checks promising to deliver
something in the future with no actual intent on paying. Even if they
seem to cost nothing now, they will have to be repaid later. If we
don't deliver what we promise, we will pay the price in some other way
such as in lost trust and lost cooperation among nations. Even our
legitimate promises will no longer be believed.
-- Harvey Newstrom, CISSP <www.HarveyNewstrom.com> Principal Security Consultant <www.Newstaff.com>
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