From: Spudboy100@aol.com
Date: Wed Jul 31 2002 - 23:43:23 MDT
Harvey Newstrom offered:
<<I am a believer in a hard take off Singularity, with youthful appearance
for
humans in 2015, self-replicating nanotech in 2020 (including "instant", i.e.
in months solar exploration/colonization as forecast by Drexler, partially
reliant on Drexlerian engineering-problem-solving molecular supercomputers)
and a hard Singularity mid-period in 2027. For some of my thoughts on these
check out "Riding the Spikerail" at
http://www.bjklein.com/forum/topic.asp?ARCHIVE=&TOPIC_ID=536
That's a very cool, notion, Harvey; but I have to tell its very, very,
optimistic, and counter intuitive to every technological occurance before.
That doesn't make it wrong, but it just seems too good to be true. I don't
see human beings, or CEL (cognitive-earth-life) as being this damn lucky. CEL
is a term I just coined to cover anything human, or machine derrivative that
can think and feel and self-reflect. Non-humans if you include dogs,
dolphins, and your occasional giant squid. But I will reflect on your
Spikerail thesis in the next hour. Much Thanks.
-Mitch
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