From: Lee Daniel Crocker (lee@piclab.com)
Date: Tue Jul 16 2002 - 22:19:20 MDT
> >>(Harvey Newstrom <mail@HarveyNewstrom.com>):
> >>
> >>I don't like gambling with my life,...
> >
> >"Gambling" and "life" are synonymous.
>
> And your point is....?
>
> Seriously, I don't know what this means. You cut off my sentence. I
> said, "I don't like gambling with my life, and prefer to get rid of such
> gambles wherever possible." Do you disagree with this statement? Do
> you think there is something wrong with trying to increase my survival
> odds to near certainty? Do you prefer living a life of risky
> excitement? You have cut down my statement and your response so far
> that I am having trouble deriving any content from this exchange.
Well, yes, it was a soundbite. I think the actual meaning behind
it is pretty clear, though, but I'll spell it out more clearly in
case it isn't: I think it is fundamentally mistaken to speak of
"eliminating" risks. Every act you take, and every occurence in
your life, without exception, has both risks and benefits. The job
of a rational thinker is to weigh them and get the most bang for
the buck. Sometimes that means avoiding things that are percieved
as "risky", but sometimes it doesn't. Take things like driving,
for example. Every time you drive risks death. The one thing you
could do to eliminate most of that risk is to wear a helmet. But
most of don't, nor do we decline to drive, because we weigh the
risks of driving against the tremendous benefit and find it to be
a bargain.
So in short, yes, I disagree with you. I don't try to get rid of
gambles, because every choice is a gamble. I try to figure out which
ones have the highest payoffs and the lowest odds, and choose the ones
with the highest EV. Often, that's the "safe" choice or the "reliable"
choice. But a lot of times it isn't, and payoffs justify taking a
big chance on starting a new business, or having a child, or many of
the other terribly risky but valuable things life has to offer.
-- Lee Daniel Crocker <lee@piclab.com> <http://www.piclab.com/lee/> "All inventions or works of authorship original to me, herein and past, are placed irrevocably in the public domain, and may be used or modified for any purpose, without permission, attribution, or notification."--LDC
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