From: Harvey Newstrom (mail@HarveyNewstrom.com)
Date: Wed Jul 17 2002 - 05:56:27 MDT
On Wednesday, July 17, 2002, at 12:19 am, Lee Daniel Crocker wrote:
>>>> (Harvey Newstrom <mail@HarveyNewstrom.com>):
>>>>
>>>> I don't like gambling with my life,...
>>>
>>> "Gambling" and "life" are synonymous.
>>
>> And your point is....?
>>
>> Seriously, I don't know what this means. You cut off my sentence. I
>> said, "I don't like gambling with my life, and prefer to get rid of
>> such
>> gambles wherever possible." Do you disagree with this statement?
>>
> Well, yes, it was a soundbite. I think the actual meaning behind
> it is pretty clear, though, but I'll spell it out more clearly in
> case it isn't: I think it is fundamentally mistaken to speak of
> "eliminating" risks. Every act you take, and every occurence in
> your life, without exception, has both risks and benefits. The job
> of a rational thinker is to weigh them and get the most bang for
> the buck. Sometimes that means avoiding things that are percieved
> as "risky", but sometimes it doesn't. Take things like driving,
> for example. Every time you drive risks death. The one thing you
> could do to eliminate most of that risk is to wear a helmet. But
> most of don't, nor do we decline to drive, because we weigh the
> risks of driving against the tremendous benefit and find it to be
> a bargain.
>
> So in short, yes, I disagree with you. I don't try to get rid of
> gambles, because every choice is a gamble. I try to figure out which
> ones have the highest payoffs and the lowest odds, and choose the ones
> with the highest EV. Often, that's the "safe" choice or the "reliable"
> choice. But a lot of times it isn't, and payoffs justify taking a
> big chance on starting a new business, or having a child, or many of
> the other terribly risky but valuable things life has to offer.
This seems to fit in with my original sentence that I "prefer to get rid
of such gambles wherever possible." I am not sure why you are
positioning this as if I disagreed with you. I actually agree with
everything you said.
-- Harvey Newstrom, CISSP <www.HarveyNewstrom.com> Principal Security Consultant <www.Newstaff.com>
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