From: Greg Burch (gregburch@gregburch.net)
Date: Mon Jul 15 2002 - 05:23:30 MDT
> -----Original Message-----
> [mailto:owner-extropians@extropy.org] On Behalf Of Damien Broderick
> Sent: Monday, July 15, 2002 12:33 AM
>
> At 05:34 PM 7/14/02 -0400, Dan wrote:
>
> >Yeap. I suggest scrapping NASA all together and let the
> market rule in
> >rocketry and spaceflight.
>
> I've been wondering how those who extol the market's
> unparalleled success in getting things done faster and
> cheaper and better account for the lack of a free enterprise
> space flight system superior to NASA's. I gather that in the
> US certain things are forbidden by law, but surely the market
> can't be stalled by petty national restrictions? Or is it the
> looming presence of a vast state-funded entity that is
> (allegedly) incompetent but *at least there in place*, that
> inhibits potential rivals? Still, why doesn't someone do what
> Venter did--use the publicly-funded and hence free data and
> industrial support system and zoom away in parallel *with
> superior outcomes*?
Neither my free-marketeer nor my space-enthusiast credentials are
subject to question here, but I have to say I wish there was an answer
to this question that pointed to a quick and easy solution to the
problems that lie behind Damien's question. Unfortunately -- for now --
there's not. I've reluctantly concluded that getting to and operating
in space is just too hard *with current technology* for the enterprise
to be profitable in any meaningful way. The now universal failures of
all the private launch ventures from the 1990s seem to be ample proof of
this.
Before I'm assailed by a hail of criticism from my libertarian brothers
and sisters, let me say that I think extraterrestrial activity is
over-regulated, that private enterprise could do *more* than it does
now, and that state monopolization certainly creates disincentives for
enterprise that *could* work in the field. The problem is that the
economics just aren't right yet: Either the profit to be made has to
increase or the costs and risks have to decrease before sufficient
private enterprise is called forth by natural market forces to get to
and stay in space. I've read a substantial portion of the
publicly-available literature on private space initiatives, and I'm sure
there's no lack of ingenuity and motivation: Were the economics right,
the result would be there.
With that said, I think the time for such private activity is *almost*
here: On the one hand, outfits like Xcor seem to have *finally*
identified a reasonable, incremental approach to private rocketry and,
on the other, we could be no more than ten years away from the
manufacturing revolution required to create materials strong and light
enough to make the hardware side of things something economically
manageable, so that a sufficient concentration of private capital will
be attracted to the enterprise that real private launch and space
operations businesses can be begun with a reasonable chance of success.
When that day comes, "the man who sold the moon" will have no more
enthusiastic supporter than me!
Greg Burch
Vice-President, Extropy Institute
http://www.gregburch.net
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