From: Anders Sandberg (asa@nada.kth.se)
Date: Sat Jul 13 2002 - 02:29:41 MDT
On Sat, Jul 13, 2002 at 10:32:34AM +0800, Chen Yixiong, Eric wrote:
>
> 1) The "putting all our eggs in one basket"
Sure. It is a good thing to spread out. But that doesn't make it
economically feasible - for a Mars venture to work, it must pay for
itself. It will likely be doable sometime, but the eggs argument (or the
argument that we transhumanists, libertarians, utopists etc want to)
doesn't make it much more feasible.
I want to go to space, but we need a business plan that is more than "it
is a good idea" (too bad the dotcom era is over, it might have worked
then :-)
> 2) The fact that we also cannot ensure our society of 6 billion, with so many problems, will enter a singularity faster than say, a
> society of 10000 dedictated transhumanists aided with the most advanced high-tech (and thus massive automation), a highly efficient
> social system and a greatly positive mindset
My argument was that it is extremely unlikely 10,000 dedicated people
can achieve this. Even if they have a positive mindset and an efficient
social system (I guess this list is a fine example of this? ;-) they
will still have to *build* the high-tech economy. Automation might help
this a lot in, say, 20-30 years when santa claus technology arrives, but
right now the closest thing to automation would be to bring a lot of
teleoperated machines not unlike bulldozers and cranes to Mars - and
building even a bulldozer factory would take a long time and much
effort, let alone building a chip foundry or a high-tech research lab
that could actually advance our understanding and technology. Note that
it takes thousands of research labs today on Earth (where they can pick
and choose students, access to journals and other info is easy and no
lab ever has to worry about air availability) to actually do good
research. Even if transhumanists on Mars prove to be smart and dedicated
it would be unlikely they could support very many such research labs.
BOTE Calc: If we assume a per capita expenditure on universities *ten
times* the current US expenditure, and that the 10,000 Mars colonists
magically manage to reach the same per capita GDP, then the total amount
of resources spent on research on Mars will be 3e-4 of what will be
spent on Earth. Since the US has only a few thousand universities, this
would likely correspond to just *one* (and a small!) university. Hardly
something that would single-handedly out-research the entire Earth.
> The difficulty in asking for commitment might have a good side: It can
>separate the truly interested from those who just want to "tag along".
Sure. The problem might be that it separates them along the wrong lines.
The brilliant transhumanist biotech researcher is obviously a tag along
because he doesn't want to give up working in a big research lab with
academic status, good equipment and easy access to scientific
conferences. The transhumanist politician, working to promote our
values, is a tag along since he won't go to Syrtis Major and erect storm
shelters rather than speak to congress. The enthusiastic pro-space
transhumanist with no outdoors experience and whose largest skill is web
design, on the other hand is a great asset for the project.
(Ouch, I'm starting to sound sarcastic. Look, it is sunny outside. Now
I'm nice again :-)
> I stand on the side of more prudence in asking humanity to buy some additional insurance. The issue does not have a clear right and
> wrong: as long as we have people to pursue both forks of the path we would receive sufficient protection against any misconceptions.
Definitely. If there ever is a realistic chance for a space venture, I
would wholeheartedly support it even if I was firmly comitted to
Earthbound projects. As we both agree, it is a good idea. But it is a
mistake to view it as the only way of promoting transhumanism or the
shibboleth that distinguishes "real" transhumanists from the poseurs.
So maybe we should start thinking of better business plans for space.
-- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Anders Sandberg Towards Ascension! asa@nada.kth.se http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/ GCS/M/S/O d++ -p+ c++++ !l u+ e++ m++ s+/+ n--- h+/* f+ g+ w++ t+ r+ !y
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