From: Anders Sandberg (asa@nada.kth.se)
Date: Wed Jul 10 2002 - 04:27:25 MDT
Hmm, what seems to be needed is:
1) A way of getting off-planet and possibly off-system (I'm also more of
an asteroid guy. You can always use the belt as a waystation for making
a starship if it seems needed)
2) Self sufficiency. This is likely related to the issue of how much
infrastructure (and people) are needed to reproduce itself and build
anything known.
3) Enough cultural, technical etc information to make the escape viable
and worth doing.
How hard and expensive these things are depends on the availble tech. In
the current era 1) seems the largest stumbling block. With a 1000 dollar
launch cost per kilogram (based on some cheap and efficient reusable
near-term launcher) the cost of getting any sizeable equipment into
orbit will take plenty of gates, especially since 2) will likely be
extremely bulky. 3 doesn't seem to be as troublesome -.electronic media
are getting compact enough to bring along a major library,
With early nanotech or early AI robotics things turn more interesting.
It would likely be useful to bring down launch costs by allowing new
materials, perhaps laser lauchers/lightships. 3D printing,
micromanufacturing and robot swarms might make 2) easier, especially if
self-reproducing general industrial systems are possible. It still seems
to cost a gates, but it would likely be doable.
With replicating nanotech, things of course get even easier.
If we assume an exponential decline of cost, then the issue becomes when
it reaches the "sizeable fortune" level (but just a sizeable fortune,
like something a paranoid business leader, big foundation or commercial
venture could raise - it only takes one such fortune/project). If this
occurs before a certain new "threat" arrives (like AI, nanotech etc)
escape seems possible. Each "threat" is also the gateway to a even
cheaper project - with full AI and nanotech it can be done very cheaply,
but presumably the risks at home are great. So a more detailled analysis
of the above early-nano/robo scenario seems worth doing. One could
probably adapt the NASA replicating moonbase study with the studies done
on Mars colonies to get an estimate of cost and complexity.
In the end, it seems that one can increase the chances of escaping
beforehand by promoting the development of those technologies that will
take a long time to test and deploy, like launch systems and self
sufficiency. Even if the actual flight is decades away, it is good to
have reliable parts.
-- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Anders Sandberg Towards Ascension! asa@nada.kth.se http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/ GCS/M/S/O d++ -p+ c++++ !l u+ e++ m++ s+/+ n--- h+/* f+ g+ w++ t+ r+ !y
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sat Nov 02 2002 - 09:15:17 MST