From: Spudboy100@aol.com
Date: Fri May 10 2002 - 08:27:37 MDT
Source: Duke University (http://www.duke.edu/)
Date: Posted 5/10/2002
Study Indicates No Natural Limit To Life Expectancy
DURHAM, N.C. -- The lifespans of people in developed nations are increasing
at a remarkably constant rate, suggesting that there is no natural limit on
life expectancy, said a Duke University researcher in an article in the May
10, 2002, Science. Data analyzed by the scientists indicate that the maximum
human lifespan will reach 100 in about six decades, which policymakers should
consider as they make critical resource decisions affecting older adults.
Study co-authors are Duke University research scientist James W. Vaupel,
director of the Program on Population, Policy and Aging at Duke's Terry
Sanford Institute of Public Policy; and Jim Oeppen with the Cambridge Group
for the History of Population and Social Structure, Cambridge University,
England. In their study, Vaupel and Oeppen reviewed longevity data from
developed countries, including Australia, Iceland, Japan, the Netherlands,
Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and the U.S. They found that life expectancy in
such countries is steadily increasing by three months a year, per year. "The
key issue for policymakers to understand from our study is that there appears
to be no finite limit to life expectancy," says Vaupel. "This has major
implications for social issues such as budget allocations for the old and
very old, and projections used to determine future pension, healthcare and
other needs." Vaupel is also head of the Laboratory of Survival and Longevity
at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Germany. The study
was funded by the Max Planck Institute and the U.S. National Institute on
Aging. World life expectancy more than doubled over the past two centuries,
from roughly 25 years to about 65 for men and 70 for women. Despite evidence
to the contrary, "students of mortality… blindly clung to the ancient notion
that under favorable conditions the typical human has a characteristic
lifespan," the authors noted in the article. "Experts have been unable to
imagine a lifespan that could rise further," leading to "the notion of a
fixed lifespan." Such a notion, the study noted, "is distorting public and
private decision-making." The researchers emphasize they are not saying there
is no limit to the rise in life expectancy. "There may or may not be some
limit at some advanced age -- it is impossible to tell given current
empirical data and theoretical knowledge," added Vaupel. "What is clear is
that there is no limit that we are about to bump up against." "Among nations
today, the longest expectation of life – almost 85 years – is enjoyed by
Japanese women," the article noted. The four-decade increase in life
expectancy in 16 decades is so extraordinarily linear that it "may be the
most remarkable regularity of mass endeavor ever observed," the study notes.
If the trend continues as it has, "record life expectancy will reach 100 in
about six decades." While this will never lead to immortality, "It is
striking that centenarians may become commonplace within the lifetimes of
people alive today," the authors add
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Sat Nov 02 2002 - 09:13:57 MST