From: Dan Clemmensen (dgc@cox.rr.com)
Date: Sun Mar 24 2002 - 19:46:47 MST
I thought that most to the folks on this list had made
personal analyses of the date of the singularity. If your
analysis results in a date in the next 30 years, then new nuclear
plants are unnecessary. We can and should employ the "least disruptive"
current technologies even if there are long-term side-effects, because
we (or our brilliant successors) can easily deal with them.
This is not a comfortable point of view. It sound like the worst
sort of short-term thinking, like eating the seed corn. However, the
truth is that all energy generation is disruptive. Solar, wind, and
hydro generally require massive up-front capital outlay for longer-term
paybacks, Coal mining rapes the landscape and builds CO2, nuclear
requires a massive outlay for educating the public, etc.
In my opinion, the correct extropian evaluation uses a very sharp
discount rate, because we know that technology will advance much faster
than most analysts believe. Therefore, we should favor energy generation
that minimizes initial capital outlay. This conclusion goes against all
my prejudices and upbringing and is therefore emotionally uncomfortable,
but is a direct consequence in my rational analysis that the singularity
is highly likely to occur before 2020. This does not mean that I'm
waiting for the tooth fairy to bring about the singularity. It does mean
that I'm no longer interested in the power debate.
In my opinion, singularity-->SI-->MNT, and SI+MNT gets us free local
low-intensity energy (solar, biomass, and geothermal) sufficient to run
all household and local transportation needs. A house designed and run
by a competent computer using MNT will use almost no energy relative to
an existing house. Most household energy use is for heating and cooling
of air, water, and food, and is laughably inefficient. We will use
local fusion based on MNT-built beam reactors for any high-intensity
energy needs, so the entire existing energy infrastructure will be
irrelevant.
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