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package org.singinst.uf.model;
//import java.util.List;
import org.singinst.uf.math.MathUtil;
public class CumulativeHazardsRelation extends YearwiseCalculationRelation {
public CumulativeHazardsRelation(Node node) {
super(node);
}
@Override
protected Calculation getCalculation(double year) {
return new AtLeastOneHappensCalculation("Probability of nuclear or other science-disrupting catastrophe by year " + (int) year,
probabilityOneCumulativeHazard(NodeIDString.Q1_7, "Independent probability of nuclear catastrophe by year ", year),
probabilityOneCumulativeHazard(NodeIDString.Q1_8, "Independent probability of non-nuclear catastrophe by year ", year));
}
private Calculation probabilityOneCumulativeHazard(final String nodeId, final String description, final double year) {
return new Calculation(description + (int) year) {
@Override
protected double rawEvaluate(StringBuilder htmlConsole) {
double t0, t1;
t0 = ModelUtil.EARLIEST_YEAR;
t1 = ModelUtil.LATEST_YEAR;
double klow, khigh;
klow = NotablePercentile.PERCENTILE5.getValue();
khigh = NotablePercentile.PERCENTILE95.getValue();
double zlow, zhigh;
zlow = NotablePercentile.PERCENTILE5.getOffset();
zhigh = NotablePercentile.PERCENTILE95.getOffset();
double y0low, y0high, y1low, y1high;
y0low = getDependency().value(nodeId, ScalarSubIDString.yearPercentileID(t0, klow ))*Math.log(10);
y0high = getDependency().value(nodeId, ScalarSubIDString.yearPercentileID(t0, khigh))*Math.log(10);
y1low = getDependency().value(nodeId, ScalarSubIDString.yearPercentileID(t1, klow ))*Math.log(10);
y1high = getDependency().value(nodeId, ScalarSubIDString.yearPercentileID(t1, khigh))*Math.log(10);
double mean_init, stddev_init, mean_final, stddev_final;
mean_init = MathUtil.linterp(zlow, zhigh, y0low, y0high, 0);
stddev_init = (y0high-y0low)/(zhigh-zlow);
mean_final = MathUtil.linterp(zlow, zhigh, y1low, y1high, 0);
stddev_final = (y1high-y1low)/(zhigh-zlow);
double[] clogp = MathUtil.clogMarginalOfExponentiallyVaryingHazardModel(
t0, t1,
mean_init, mean_final,
stddev_init, stddev_final,
new double[]{year}
);
return MathUtil.expc(clogp[0]);
}
};
}
}
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