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From: Sjors Provoost <sjors@sprovoost.nl>
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Subject: Re: [bitcoindev] Censorship Resistant Transaction Relay - Taking out
 the garbage(man)
Date: Tue, 3 Jun 2025 22:32:56 +0200
In-Reply-To: <CC0C1719-662E-4571-97EE-4DC504CC4360@sprovoost.nl>
Cc: bitcoindev@googlegroups.com
To: Peter Todd <pete@petertodd.org>
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After some back-of-the-envelope calculations*, I agree that this pointless.

But it does seem that the first-seen rule is quite useful. For an attacking=
 pool with fraction f, it reduces their success rate from linear with f to =
quadratic.

Although theoretically that's worse for small pools, it doesn't really matt=
er in practice, because the odds of a successful reorg are tiny anyway. Eve=
n if the attacking pool allocates 10% of its hash power, which would be ver=
y hard to sustain in a competitive environment.

* =3D too sloppy to be worth sharing. Someone actually competent at math co=
uld do so. The strategy would be to mine an alternate chain for n seconds a=
fter each "bad" block (regardless of new blocks coming in). If the pool fin=
ds a block, it keeps mining on it until a longer chain appears. Compare thi=
s strategy with and without the first-seen rule in place, otherwise assume =
instant propagation. Then consider how many sats of transaction fees the ot=
her miners should rationally be willing to forgo to avoid the reorg risk.

- Sjors

> Op 3 jun 2025, om 19:51 heeft Sjors Provoost <sjors@sprovoost.nl> het vol=
gende geschreven:
>=20
> They can broadcast an expensive signal, i.e. make a statement, with a sin=
gle block even if nobody builds on it.
>=20
> More cheaply, and perhaps more effective, they could publish a feed of we=
ak blocks on their social media, containing the hash of each rejected block=
 in a coinbase OP_RETURN. They could mine this block for just a few seconds=
 or minutes, before resuming to mine on the tip.
>=20
> Even a low success rate could serve as a deterrent to other miners agains=
t including "bad" transactions. Rationally the attack would have to cost ab=
out as much as the extra revenue from censored fees, but risk aversion woul=
d probably leverage to this strategy.
>=20
> Of course I'd rather not go down this path.
>=20
> - Sjors=20
>=20
>> Op 3 jun 2025, om 19:41 heeft Peter Todd <pete@petertodd.org> het volgen=
de geschreven:
>>=20
>> On Tue, Jun 03, 2025 at 08:50:34AM +0200, Sjors Provoost wrote:
>>> Or people can just spin up more Libre Relay nodes. Both miners and issu=
ers of various scam tokens have a monetary incentive to do that. Whereas pr=
oponents of filters are (so far) not willing to invest serious money. E.g. =
when I challenged Luke Dashjr in an earlier post to reorg a single block wi=
th spam, he didn't respond [1]. Worse, Ocean proactively offers "Core" [0] =
templates. Although running a node is cheap, if this becomes an arms race, =
the side that actually spends money has the advantage.
>>=20
>> I need to point out that you're being unfair to Ocean here: with their <=
1% hash
>> power it's damn near impossible for them to reorg blocks. The reason is =
because
>> if there are two blocks at the same height, Bitcoin Core accepts the fir=
st
>> block seen.
>>=20
>> Thus if Ocean wants to reorg a "spam" block out, they need to find not j=
ust
>> one, but two blocks in a row before any other miner finds one. The proba=
bility
>> of that happening is (very) roughly 1% * 1% =3D 0.01% per attempt. Given=
 that
>> blocks are worth ~$300k these days, you're asking them to spend tens of
>> millions of dollars worth of hash power just to reorg out a single block=
.
>>=20
>> It's not going to happen.
>>=20
>> --=20
>> https://petertodd.org 'peter'[:-1]@petertodd.org
>=20
> --=20
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<html><head><meta http-equiv=3D"content-type" content=3D"text/html; charset=
=3Dus-ascii"></head><body style=3D"overflow-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-=
mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;">After some back-of-the-envelop=
e calculations*, I agree that this pointless.<div><br></div><div>But it doe=
s seem that the first-seen rule is quite useful. For an attacking pool with=
 fraction f, it reduces their success rate from linear with f to quadratic.=
<div><br></div><div>Although theoretically that's worse for small pools, it=
 doesn't really matter in practice, because the odds of a successful reorg =
are tiny anyway. Even if the attacking pool allocates 10% of its hash power=
, which would be very hard to sustain in a competitive environment.</div><d=
iv><br></div><div>* =3D too sloppy to be worth sharing. Someone actually co=
mpetent at math could do so. The strategy would be to mine an alternate cha=
in for n seconds after each "bad" block (regardless of new blocks coming in=
). If the pool finds a block, it keeps mining on it until a longer chain ap=
pears. Compare this strategy with and without the first-seen rule in place,=
 otherwise assume instant propagation. Then consider how many sats of trans=
action fees the other miners should rationally be willing to forgo to avoid=
 the reorg risk.</div><div><br></div><div>- Sjors<div><div><div><div><br><b=
lockquote type=3D"cite"><div>Op 3 jun 2025, om 19:51 heeft Sjors Provoost &=
lt;sjors@sprovoost.nl&gt; het volgende geschreven:</div><br class=3D"Apple-=
interchange-newline"><div><meta charset=3D"UTF-8"><span style=3D"caret-colo=
r: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: norma=
l; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; tex=
t-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal=
; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;=
 float: none; display: inline !important;">They can broadcast an expensive =
signal, i.e. make a statement, with a single block even if nobody builds on=
 it.</span><br style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; =
font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight=
: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-tr=
ansform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-=
width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0);=
 font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-=
caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; =
text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: =
0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><span style=3D=
"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-s=
tyle: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: =
normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-sp=
ace: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decora=
tion: none; float: none; display: inline !important;">More cheaply, and per=
haps more effective, they could publish a feed of weak blocks on their soci=
al media, containing the hash of each rejected block in a coinbase OP_RETUR=
N. They could mine this block for just a few seconds or minutes, before res=
uming to mine on the tip.</span><br style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); fon=
t-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps=
: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text=
-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px;=
 -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br style=3D"caret=
-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: =
normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal=
; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: n=
ormal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: =
none;"><span style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; fo=
nt-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: =
400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-tran=
sform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-wi=
dth: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;">=
Even a low success rate could serve as a deterrent to other miners against =
including "bad" transactions. Rationally the attack would have to cost abou=
t as much as the extra revenue from censored fees, but risk aversion would =
probably leverage to this strategy.</span><br style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, =
0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-va=
riant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: s=
tart; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spa=
cing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br styl=
e=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; fo=
nt-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spaci=
ng: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; whit=
e-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-de=
coration: none;"><span style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Hel=
vetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; fon=
t-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px;=
 text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text=
-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !im=
portant;">Of course I'd rather not go down this path.</span><br style=3D"ca=
ret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-styl=
e: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: nor=
mal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space=
: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoratio=
n: none;"><br style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; f=
ont-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight:=
 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-tra=
nsform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-w=
idth: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><span style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0)=
; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant=
-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start;=
 text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing:=
 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; d=
isplay: inline !important;">- Sjors<span class=3D"Apple-converted-space">&n=
bsp;</span></span><br style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helv=
etica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font=
-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; =
text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-=
stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><br style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0,=
 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-v=
ariant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: =
start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-sp=
acing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><blockq=
uote type=3D"cite" style=3D"font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-s=
tyle: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: =
normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:=
 none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-s=
troke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;">Op 3 jun 2025, om 19:41 heeft Pet=
er Todd &lt;pete@petertodd.org&gt; het volgende geschreven:<br><br>On Tue, =
Jun 03, 2025 at 08:50:34AM +0200, Sjors Provoost wrote:<br><blockquote type=
=3D"cite">Or people can just spin up more Libre Relay nodes. Both miners an=
d issuers of various scam tokens have a monetary incentive to do that. Wher=
eas proponents of filters are (so far) not willing to invest serious money.=
 E.g. when I challenged Luke Dashjr in an earlier post to reorg a single bl=
ock with spam, he didn't respond [1]. Worse, Ocean proactively offers "Core=
" [0] templates. Although running a node is cheap, if this becomes an arms =
race, the side that actually spends money has the advantage.<br></blockquot=
e><br>I need to point out that you're being unfair to Ocean here: with thei=
r &lt;1% hash<br>power it's damn near impossible for them to reorg blocks. =
The reason is because<br>if there are two blocks at the same height, Bitcoi=
n Core accepts the first<br>block seen.<br><br>Thus if Ocean wants to reorg=
 a "spam" block out, they need to find not just<br>one, but two blocks in a=
 row before any other miner finds one. The probability<br>of that happening=
 is (very) roughly 1% * 1% =3D 0.01% per attempt. Given that<br>blocks are =
worth ~$300k these days, you're asking them to spend tens of<br>millions of=
 dollars worth of hash power just to reorg out a single block.<br><br>It's =
not going to happen.<br><br>--<span class=3D"Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;<=
/span><br>https://petertodd.org 'peter'[:-1]@petertodd.org<br></blockquote>=
<br style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: =
12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; lett=
er-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: no=
ne; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;=
 text-decoration: none;"><span style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-fam=
ily: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: nor=
mal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-inde=
nt: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -web=
kit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: in=
line !important;">--<span class=3D"Apple-converted-space">&nbsp;</span></sp=
an><br style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-siz=
e: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: 400; l=
etter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform:=
 none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0=
px; text-decoration: none;"><span style=3D"caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-=
family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: =
normal; font-weight: 400; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-i=
ndent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -=
webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display:=
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